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Showing 10 of 2,354,908 contributions. Latest 30 days: 0. Coverage: 12 May 1999 — 25 Mar 2026.
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
If we are going to be held to the agreement, we want clarity. So, it is GDP growth, not just “GDP”. The paragraph says that such a “shock is triggered when onshore Scottish GDP is below 1% in absolute terms”. Do you mean in real terms?
Lesley Brennan (North East Scotland) (Lab) Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
It has been really useful to have the text of the agreement, but the wording of paragraph 66 is perhaps not as clear as it could be. It talks about “A Scotland-specific economic shock” being “triggered” by “onshore Scottish GDP”. Do you mean GDP growth?
Lesley Brennan (North East Scotland) (Lab) Lab Committee
03 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
Welcome to the committee, chief secretary. I want to ask about paragraph 66 and Scotland-specific economic shocks. In your opening statement, you referred to extensive borrowing powers and resource borrowing up to the new level of £600 million a year. Paragraph 66 sets out the...
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
I asked the economists at SPICe to have a look at this, and in relation to a change from quarter 1 to quarter 2 one of the SPICe researchers said: “Additionally quarterly growth in quarterly GDP is unlikely to be above 1% (that would give annual GDP growth of 4.1% or more) .....
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
03 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
I would appreciate getting that detail. It is commonly accepted that a recession is a period of general economic decline, which is typically defined as being a decline in GDP growth in two or more consecutive quarters. I forgot to say that there seems to be a word missing in...
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
24 Feb 2016
Fiscal Framework
You have said that the issue is onshore GDP growth. Would oil and gas revenue still be considered as UK revenue?
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
24 Feb 2016
Fiscal Framework
Okay, and that is onshore—
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
Looking at the figures, I think that it would be better for our interest if that was in real terms. It is not a criticism—Interruption. No, no—I have had the Scottish Parliament information centre look at this, too. An economic shock is determined by this. The paragraph talks ...
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
Are you confident about and comfortable with that? In a Fraser of Allander institute article entitled “How wrong were we? The accuracy of the Fraser of Allander Institute’s forecasts of the Scottish economy since 2000”, the institute shows that models perform poorly in predict...
Lesley Brennan Lab Committee
02 Mar 2016
Fiscal Framework
That will obviously be more challenging than forecasting annual GDP growth—that is what the experts suggest.
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Committee

Finance Committee 02 March 2016

02 Mar 2016 · S4 · Finance Committee
Item of business
Fiscal Framework
Brennan, Lesley Lab North East Scotland Watch on SPTV
If we are going to be held to the agreement, we want clarity. So, it is GDP growth, not just “GDP”. The paragraph says that such a “shock is triggered when onshore Scottish GDP is below 1% in absolute terms”. Do you mean in real terms?

In the same item of business

The Convener SNP
Our next item is evidence from the Deputy First Minister on Scotland’s fiscal framework. Mr Swinney is joined for this item by Sean Neill and Alison Byrne, f...
The Convener SNP
It’ll be 17, if you don’t watch it. My first question was asked by Gavin Brown at a meeting yesterday, so—
Gavin Brown Con
Do not let that stop you.
The Convener SNP
I do not want to steal your thunder, so I will go on to my next question. Paragraph 23 of the agreement says: “The fiscal framework does not include or ass...
John Swinney SNP
In essence, the agreement delivers the outcome that the Scottish Government sought, in terms of the block grant adjustment mechanism; it delivers the outcome...
The Convener SNP
After months of negotiation, have the positions of both Governments changed? Is there a more bilateral relationship than perhaps there was previously?
John Swinney SNP
The key characteristic of the discussions, which is reflected in paragraph 23, is that the Scottish Government is in a position to agree with the Treasury an...
The Convener SNP
That puts things on a much sounder footing. Paragraph 28 of the agreement says: “Revenues from courts and tribunals in Scotland will be retained by the Sco...
John Swinney SNP
I do not have a figure to hand, but I will certainly write to the committee about that.
The Convener SNP
Thank you. In the following paragraph, the agreement states: “The implementation dates for welfare will be agreed by the Joint Ministerial Working Group on...
John Swinney SNP
We will want to make the swiftest possible progress on that. However, as I think I said last week—forgive me, but I appeared in front of two committees on th...
The Convener SNP
You mentioned it last week.
John Swinney SNP
We will have to put in place the necessary arrangements to ensure, at the very minimum, continuity of provision to recipients of welfare payments. It will re...
The Convener SNP
There are 10 paragraphs entitled “Administration and implementation costs”, on which I have a number of questions. It might be easier to ask an overall quest...
John Swinney SNP
The funds that will be available are clear in the agreement. There will be a one-off transfer of £200 million to support implementation of the powers in the ...
The Convener SNP
I know that Lord Forsyth and others are unhappy even about the sums of £200 million and £66 million a year, which are set out clearly in the document. I am t...
John Swinney SNP
There will be a number of stages at which the costs will become apparent. Paragraph 33 of the agreement, for example, puts in place a different cost arrangem...
The Convener SNP
There has been much discussion about no detriment. There are 10 paragraphs in the agreement under the heading “No detriment due to policy spillover effects”,...
John Swinney SNP
I can only speculate on what direct effects there might be. In welfare, if the Scottish Government increases eligibility for certain devolved benefits, that ...
The Convener SNP
I have one more question on capital borrowing before I open up the meeting to questions from colleagues. Paragraph 54 says that “due consideration was given...
John Swinney SNP
There has to be give and take in a negotiation. My sense is that the UK Government’s approach has been—as it is perfectly entitled to do, within its reserved...
The Convener SNP
It still seems to me to be anomalous that councils in Scotland can have providential borrowing, but the Scottish Government cannot. I have a further point t...
John Swinney SNP
When we borrow, we will negotiate for the cheapest available borrowing, to put it bluntly. That is what we will pursue on every occasion.
The Convener SNP
Previously, there was a concern that you would have to pay above the odds; the UK Government was considering that you would perhaps have to pay 1 per cent or...
John Swinney SNP
I do not see what justification there would be for that.
Lesley Brennan (North East Scotland) (Lab) Lab
It has been really useful to have the text of the agreement, but the wording of paragraph 66 is perhaps not as clear as it could be. It talks about “A Scotl...
John Swinney SNP
Yes.
Lesley Brennan Lab
If we are going to be held to the agreement, we want clarity. So, it is GDP growth, not just “GDP”. The paragraph says that such a “shock is triggered when...
John Swinney SNP
No.
Lesley Brennan Lab
What do you mean by “in absolute terms”?