Meeting of the Parliament 09 January 2018
That is entirely true. The Shetland fishing industry—or, rather, the fishermen themselves—do not support staying in the European Union but, as Mr Stevenson rightly set out, the fish processing industry needs access to the single market. It needs membership of the customs union as well and does not need the tariffs that we will get with a hard Brexit. I take Mr Findlay’s point but, in politics, some of us have to stand up now and again for things that we believe in. I believe in the European Union and wish that we were staying in it, not leaving it.
As the UK Government reshuffle continues, politics—but certainly not the country—observes Tory Brexiteer promotions and how that affects the balance of that most disunited of Governments. We are in the final nine months of the EU-UK negotiations. The Prime Minister has spent two days not on defining her Government’s position on our future but on a reshuffle that appears to be anything but a reshuffle. She could have had a two-day Cabinet meeting to thrash out an agreed position, but we can only conclude that that will never happen on Europe. The reshuffle could have heralded the back of Messrs Johnson, Davis and Fox. Why should they be replaced? Because, with them, a Tory Cabinet can never unite on the most important aspect of the UK’s future: the type of trading relationship that the Government envisages will govern our relationship with the EU.
In Florence last year, the Prime Minister sought to say that she wanted to build bridges with the EU—or, rather, to replace all the bridges that she had previously burned—and to forge a close working relationship like the one that we used to have before she set fire to all the bridges. Today, we learned that the Brexit secretary is appalled that EU planning is under way for the eventuality that negotiations fail. Who can blame Mr Barnier? The UK Government response is a David Davis letter helpfully leaked to the Financial Times saying that the impact of there being no deal could jeopardise existing contracts that British businesses have won and force such businesses to relocate to the continent.
What does Mr Davis expect? Or is this the start of an aggressive anti-EU public stance that has been simmering under the surface for the past 18 months? The hypocrisy of David Davis criticising the EU for planning for no deal takes a bit of believing on the day that the Prime Minister has considered appointing a specific minister in his department whose only job would be to plan for no deal. In the speeches that the Prime Minister has made on Brexit, she always cites the possibility of no deal.
Late last year, we found out that the UK Government had produced no assessment worth the paper it was redacted on of the sector by sector, industry by industry impact on the economy and businesses of the UK Government’s approach. No wonder the UK Government does not know what its approach is. It does not want that objective assessment because it will fall so short of what Brexit campaigners promised voters that, in the House of Commons vote later this year, MPs might just muster the courage to say no.
The chancellor wants regulatory equidistance or, rather, the same EU rules to continue. Take pharmaceuticals. It now appears that Philip Hammond is not alone. Other UK ministers are worried not only by the loss of thousands of jobs as the European Medicines Agency moves from London to Amsterdam, but by the industry’s open call for the UK to remain within that regulatory regime. Here is the rub for the Prime Minister: that will keep the UK under the indirect jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, despite ending the court’s role in the UK being a Theresa May red line. The agreement on citizens’ rights also means a continuing role for the ECJ, despite all the protestations to the contrary.
Some other red lines are blurring too. Boris Johnson, speaking as the Foreign Secretary, said Brussels could “go whistle” for any British money. However, we will now pay at least £40 billion for leaving the EU. So much for the £350 million per week that would go to the NHS—based on the accident and emergency figures for Scotland that were announced today, we could do with some of that.
The one certainty about article 50 is uncertainty. Last year, in this Parliament, article 50 author Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, said:
“I find it odd that we chose to trigger the procedure without having a clear idea of where we were going to go.”—[Official Report, Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Relations Committee, 5 October 2017; c 2.]
Indeed. Lord Kerr went on to observe that the Prime Minister’s Florence speech ruled out the Norwegian trade relationship model and a Canada-style deal. She refuses to say what will be the long-term permanent, relationship between the EU and the UK following Brexit. We are now offered another speech and another speech. Well, let us hear what that relationship will be.
Lord Kerr added:
“When David Davis says … that we will enjoy the exact same benefits as we did when we were members of the single market and customs union,”
—that sounds a bit like Jeremy Corbyn, by the way—
“Michel Barnier is right to say that that is impossible”.—[Official Report, Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Relations Committee, 5 October 2017; c 8.]
So, there we have it. The only objective conclusion is that the UK is heading later this year for no deal. I oppose that—but then, I oppose leaving the EU altogether. There will therefore be a test of the 650 members of Parliament in London. If MPs were to vote against such a deal before Christmas, we would remain a full EU member—that is a legal fact. There would be space to reassess. If the Government loses that vote, the Conservatives will fall. If the DUP support the Tories at that point, despite the impending crisis that would befall the Irish border, who knows what will happen?
In those circumstances it is inconceivable that the rest of the EU would insist that the UK should leave on 29 March 2019. Instead, in that classic and merciful way that predominates in grown-up politics in Europe, a way would be found to suspend article 50, which would be in the EU27’s interests. At that point, the UK would have to ensure that the people of this country were given a choice.
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