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Showing 26 of 2,354,908 contributions. Latest 30 days: 0. Coverage: 12 May 1999 — 25 Mar 2026.
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
27 Nov 2013
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
Everybody agrees that the remit of the OBR is quite restricting—I think that the OBR would say that, too—and you have also stated that it would be important in the short term to come to some agreement on Scotland’s figures and forecasts with the OBR. Is it important that the w...
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
08 May 2013
Scotland Act 2012
I want to ask about the forecast figures that the Office for Budget Responsibility has supplied to us so far. From the evidence that we took from the OBR, it seems that we do not really have clear Scottish figures—this is new work, if you like—and the forecasting has been fair...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
08 May 2013
Scotland Act 2012
Sorry, the OBR has forecast the Scottish income tax.I guess that what I am saying is that the figures in the OBR’s forecasts have varied enormously. Can we therefore assume that, as the foreword to the first annual implementation report states,“these measures will enable the S...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
25 Sep 2013
Financial Reporting
My question is on the same theme of the clarity of financial reporting relating to assets and liabilities. The examples that we have talked about are recorded through local authorities and so on. What about assets such as those that are held by the Crown Estate? Do you look at...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
27 Nov 2013
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
To go back to the ship and the rocks analogy, would the Westminster Government or the chancellor, George Osborne, have known the OBR position? Would that have been discussed and then not accepted by him? Did the OBR then go public and say, “We’ve given this advice, and it has ...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
08 Jan 2014
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
My questions have probably been answered in the cabinet secretary’s answers to the previous two questioners. From some of the evidence that we have heard and the presentations that have been made, it feels as if there is to be a rather reduced remit for the new commission, cer...
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
24 Apr 2013
Scotland Act 2012
I have one observation to make. It seems, from reading the paper and listening to the OBR presentation—which was not very reassuring in terms of differentials and uncertainties—that the best thing would be to devolve all the tax-raising powers. Do you have an opinion on that?
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
08 May 2013
Scotland Act 2012
I am just saying that, in the evidence that we have had so far, the OBR’s figures have been difficult to reconcile even with its own forecasts. Within months, the figures have swung fairly dramatically—
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
08 May 2013
Scotland Act 2012
I accept that. However, the report states, under the section on “Block Grant Adjustment”, that “the work to be carried out by the Office of Budget Responsibility would be critical.”There is a lack of clarity. For example, the OBR showed an increase in landfill tax income when ...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
25 Sep 2013
Financial Reporting
I have a supplementary question. On the basis of what you have said, it seems that the clarity that you achieve in auditing Scotland’s figures is not achieved at a United Kingdom level. The OBR’s figures make no distinction between Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and English f...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
04 Dec 2013
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
I hope that, when we are writing the remit for that group of people, we can consider agreeing to make it different to the OBR’s remit, which seems to be pretty limited.
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
07 May 2014
Scotland’s Public Finances Post-2014
I have had many questions in my head since we started this discussion, but I would like to ask you about the current economy of the United Kingdom. There seems to be an implication that everything is okay as it is, and that we should not upset the apple cart. However, many eco...
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
11 Jun 2014
Scotland Act 2012 and United Kingdom Budget
The earliest projections that we had from the OBR for landfill tax were dramatically wrong, and they were then reviewed. That was in recognition of the political policy in Scotland—you can correct me if I am wrong about how that changed and what that might mean. I suspect tha...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
11 Jun 2014
Scotland Act 2012 and United Kingdom Budget
Would any OBR reflections on the income that would be raised be available?
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
29 Oct 2014
Draft Budget Scrutiny 2015-16
I return to the data—the missing data, if you like. When you looked at the systems that the OBR employs, did you find them really impressive? Did you get excited about the detail in the data collection that it has to make its forecast?
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
29 Oct 2014
Draft Budget Scrutiny 2015-16
Has its forecasting with such data always been impressive? My experience on this committee is not great, but the OBR has often been fairly spectacularly wrong in its forecasting.
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
29 Oct 2014
Draft Budget Scrutiny 2015-16
In general, you are saying that the focus of the work in some of the areas that you are looking at is almost microscopic compared with that of the OBR, but the chances are that it could be much more exact.
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
21 May 2014
Scotland’s Public Finances Post-2014
I thank both witnesses for the discussion that we have had so far, which has been fascinating. Reference has been made during this morning’s discussion to the kind of advice and interpretation of the economic situation that might be available from the fiscal commission, or t...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
21 May 2014
Scotland’s Public Finances Post-2014
Do you think that the OBR is too close to the Westminster Government?
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
28 Jan 2015
Further Fiscal Devolution
The OBR has given some forecasts on the impact of the elimination of the UK’s public sector deficit, but that occurs mainly through cutting public expenditure. Given that that is likely to continue, do you believe that the Smith commission changes will allow Scotland to follow...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
28 Jan 2015
Further Fiscal Devolution
Do you agree, therefore, that Scotland should be able to follow a different path on the austerity programme? The OBR is predicting that most of the payments to reduce the deficit in the United Kingdom are coming from public services, so can you see opportunities for Scotland t...
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
01 Apr 2015
Economic and Fiscal Outlook (United Kingdom)
I have a brief question. The OBR’s forecast is that household debt will continue to rise. According to your papers, household debt is now far above the levels of 2008. What are your thoughts about the sustainability of that? Do you expect that to stabilise at any point?
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
13 Nov 2013
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
All my questions, with the exception of two points, have probably been answered in response to previous questioners. First, there is a perception that the OBR is very close to Government. If you were setting up a new budget responsibility body, would you do anything differentl...
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
27 Nov 2013
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
I think that you have all said that you think that there is sufficient distance between the work of the OBR and that of the Treasury, but it is not always seen like that, and there has been criticism. Some economic journalists, for example, see them as being too close. Do you ...
Jean Urquhart (Highlands and Islands) (Ind) Ind Committee
04 Nov 2015
Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill: Stage 1
Good morning, Mr Chote. As long as this country is not independent, there will be many strands to the communications that go on. If you were heading up the Scottish Fiscal Commission, what relationship with the OBR would you recommend for the commission?
Jean Urquhart Ind Committee
04 Nov 2015
Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill: Stage 1
Given that there is, of course, the rest of the budget and the reserved matters that Scotland does not involve itself with, is there a relationship with the Scottish Fiscal Commission and what used to be known as the Scotland Office? How does it fit into the mix with the OBR?
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Committee

Finance Committee 27 November 2013

27 Nov 2013 · S4 · Finance Committee
Item of business
Independent Fiscal Body Inquiry
Urquhart, Jean Ind Highlands and Islands Watch on SPTV
Everybody agrees that the remit of the OBR is quite restricting—I think that the OBR would say that, too—and you have also stated that it would be important in the short term to come to some agreement on Scotland’s figures and forecasts with the OBR. Is it important that the wider remit, or the remit that we would want in an independent Scotland, is the remit that is worked on now, given that the IFI would acknowledge that there is a reputational issue at stake, to do with what Scotland will look like and how it will handle those issues? If we are looking to improve things here and not to pick something off the shelf that is found wanting, how do we square that circle and allow it to happen? We can get excited about the prospect of the new body, which I would be keen to see, but what would happen in the short term?

In the same item of business

The Convener SNP
Item 2 is an evidence-taking session for our inquiry into proposals for an independent fiscal body. I welcome Dr Jim Cuthbert, Professor Campbell Leith and P...
Dr Jim Cuthbert
When such a body is set up, the remit is critical. What should not be overemphasised is the forecasting role, but what should be emphasised is the role of as...
The Convener SNP
Yes—that is quite interesting. We have not seen that paper yet, but the clerk will circulate it to committee members. What do other witnesses think? Is the ...
Professor Campbell Leith (University of Glasgow)
The OBR remit is among the tightest of any fiscal council in the world in that it must give a purely positive analysis of the fiscal situation. It cannot loo...
Professor Jeremy Peat (Royal Society of Edinburgh)
I agree. First, Jim Cuthbert is right that the uncertainties around any forecast are inevitable and considerable. I think that it was Eddie George who said: ...
The Convener SNP
Paragraph 8 of your submission says that the RSE recognises that “concerns have been expressed as to whether the forecasts provided by the UK OBR fully capt...
Professor Peat
We have not gone into depth in looking at the full detail of the OBR forecasts. However, from talking to Robert Chote when he is up here and from listening t...
The Convener SNP
One issue to do with newly devolved taxes that has been of concern to the committee is the fact that the OBR has, in effect, just been extrapolating UK figur...
Professor Peat
It is difficult to see how the two bodies would interrelate while we were in a period of devolution—and increased devolution, if that was to take place on th...
The Convener SNP
Professor Leith, you specifically touch on the matter in paragraph 8 of your submission, where you state that a key question about a Scottish IFI and the OBR...
Professor Leith
My view is that the two organisations should work together. As soon as there was a disagreement, the media would focus on that, whereas the job of an indepen...
Dr Cuthbert
It might help the situation if the status of the forecast was made absolutely clear. One of the suggestions that I made in my OBR paper is that, when the bod...
Professor Peat
Can I add one small additional point? I agree entirely with the suggestion that Jim Cuthbert has made, but it is also important that the model that is used i...
The Convener SNP
Dr Cuthbert, in the third paragraph of the introduction to your paper, you say: “the OBR’s treatment of risk is grossly inadequate”. Your paper explains in...
Dr Cuthbert
As I have already said, part of the problem goes back to the OBR’s remit. Any body will have relatively limited resources, and the OBR clearly commands some ...
The Convener SNP
Would you be keen for a Scottish IFI to have risk assessment at the heart of its remit?
Dr Cuthbert
Yes, absolutely.
The Convener SNP
Professor Leith, would you like to comment?
Professor Leith
I am a little bit less negative about the role of the central forecast in the OBR’s work. It is true that it makes a number of assumptions in order to produc...
Professor Peat
I veer more towards what Professor Leith has just been saying than towards Jim Cuthbert’s suggestion, which is to take away the central forecast. We must rem...
Dr Cuthbert
I just want to correct Jeremy Peat. He implied that I said that I want to take away the central forecast, but I was not saying that. There is an important ro...
The Convener SNP
We are well into the meeting and I have a lot of questions that I want to ask, but my colleagues are also keen to come in, so I will ask one more question. I...
Dr Cuthbert
I cannot give specific examples from the UK context, but an example that I have mentioned before is that when, in America, there was a suggestion that policy...
The Convener SNP
Therefore, for example, if the OBR said that the economy was going to grow by a spectacular 5 per cent next year, a lot of companies would think that their b...
Professor Leith
For me, the major feedback effect for such policy questions is the monetary policy response to fiscal policy. When an austerity package is implemented, what ...
Professor Peat
The monetary implications are the most important. If we had in the UK a forecast of very rapid growth such as the convener mentioned, manufacturers might ten...
The Convener SNP
In other words, feedback effects can have an impact, depending on the prediction. My colleagues have been very patient in waiting to come in with their ques...
Jamie Hepburn (Cumbernauld and Kilsyth) (SNP) SNP
Professor Leith said that the OBR’s main assumptions are around asset prices, but I note that in your paper, Dr Cuthbert—you touched on this in your exchange...
Dr Cuthbert
I certainly agree—indeed, the main part of my paper argues—that that is an almost inherent feature of forecasting in a policy-influenced environment. The res...
Jamie Hepburn SNP
Thank you for that. Professor Leith, the rationale for establishing what you describe as fiscal councils in the introduction to your paper is very interesti...