Hansard

Having quickly rewritten the start of my speech, I now begin by congratulating Roseanna Cunningham on her chairing of the committee. Events in the chamber have shown just how important it was that the convener did not allow the committee to be detoured into discussing the minutiae of a specific planning event.

There are already signs that climate change is affecting Scotland. Changes in weather patterns and mean temperatures are already having noticeable temporal and spatial effects on our wildlife. While the expansion of the nuthatch's range might be welcomed as increasing biodiversity, we are also seeing the retreat of some species, the upland summer mayfly being one perhaps not very obvious example.

Alongside continuing changes in our fauna and flora we can expect changing patterns and an overall increased risk of flooding in both urban and rural areas, particularly adjacent to our rivers. Significantly, there will also be an increased risk of inundation in coastal areas as sea levels rise.

We cannot be certain how quickly and how high sea levels will rise. If the Scottish Government is successful in meeting its commitment to make 80 per cent reductions in carbon emissions, and if other nations follow suit, the rise might be limited. If, however, other Governments fail to follow Scotland's example, the rise might be considerable. Predictions vary widely. The United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change forecasts a maximum rise of 81cm. However, in the journal, Nature Geoscience, a maximum rise of 163cm is predicted. Dr James Hansen has suggested that if the west Arctic or Greenland ice sheets go, the rise could be as much as 5m. We can be certain that sea levels will rise, but we cannot be certain how great the rise will be. One thing is certain—we must plan and act now, in order to avoid being overwhelmed in the future. Taking action will have its critics and its costs, but if we fail to act, there will be greater costs in the future—not just financial costs, but costs in terms of human suffering as well. Being flooded is a highly stressful experience, but how much more stressful it is for people whose home is permanently flooded and must be abandoned.

We might draw parallels and imagine that we are at the beginning of some other great Government failure—the private finance initiative, perhaps. If the Government almost a decade ago had had the courage to call a halt, and if the former Executive had had the courage to say no to PFI, vast sums of money would have been saved. If action had been taken then, we would not have to pay bills for schools and hospitals decades into the future. If we lack the courage to take action now and we continue to build on low coastal plains, we will be obliged within a few decades either to spend great sums on building coastal defences or to rehouse those who have been forced to abandon their homes to the rising seas.

Of course, the legislation will not be simple. It would be simplistic merely to prohibit building below a certain height throughout Scotland. However, it is simple common sense to place restrictions on developments that would be directly affected by a rise in sea levels. During the flooding inquiry, I asked several witnesses whether they would consider it wise to place restrictions on developments below a certain height above sea level. They included Professor John Mitchell, who is director of climate science at the Met Office. He agreed that, in view of the predicted rise in sea levels that is associated with climate change, it would be sensible to prohibit building below a certain height above sea level. Others expressed concern that a rise in sea levels, combined with the possibility of more frequent and intense storm surges, could result in a considerably increased risk to low-lying developments.

During our evidence-gathering sessions, I asked witnesses from local authorities whether they had policies to restrict building in coastal areas. In particular, I asked whether they had any restrictions with specific reference to height above sea level as a response to the increased risk of inundation due to the anticipated rise in sea levels. I received several negative replies. In other words, a number of local authorities have no restrictions and no intention of introducing any.

It seems to me an act of folly that, faced with potentially catastrophic rises in sea levels, local authorities would build homes on coastal sites less than 1m above sea level. I ask the Government to consider putting in place clear restrictions on new-build in coastal areas. No doubt some would attack such restrictions, but I say to the Government and to all parties in the Parliament that, whatever attacks might be made on us for introducing such restrictions, they will be nothing compared with the condemnation of future generations if we do not act now.

If we do not act, future generations will have to meet a hefty bill. Whether it is for extensive coastal defences or for rehousing people, the price will have to be paid. The folly of PFI means that we already know the cost of failing to act when it becomes clear that a policy will leave future Governments and generations with massive debts.