Hansard

I rise to speak against this SSI, which, if passed tonight, will mean that any prisoner who is sentenced to four years or less will automatically be released after serving just 30 per cent of their sentence. No ifs, no buts, and no governor’s veto—no matter how dangerous a prisoner may appear, there is no power to prevent their release.

Let us examine which criminals we are talking about. As of February this year, there were more than 1,500 eligible short‑term prisoners, of whom 43 per cent were in prison for non‑sexual crimes of violence and about a third were in prison for crimes against society or crimes of dishonesty. They will be automatically back on our streets and automatically back in our communities.

The cabinet secretary’s justification at the Criminal Justice Committee was that automatic release at 30 per cent of sentences is necessary to keep prisons “safe and effective” and that it could reduce the population by up to 312 individuals. However, members will remember that, in November 2024, the Parliament was asked to change the automatic release point from 50 per cent of sentences to 40 per cent. In committee, the question was put plainly to the cabinet secretary: did that change ease the prison population?

Despite that reduction and the repeated so-called emergency releases, the prison population rose from 8,350 in February 2025 to a record 8,430 in October 2025. In fact, the success—or otherwise—of the move to 40 per cent is not even due for statutory review until next year. The reduction to 40 per cent has not even been assessed yet, and here we are being asked to reduce the figure further, to 30 per cent.

Presiding Officer, I will tell you what is not reducing: crime. Since 2021, recorded crime is up by 6 per cent, sexual crime is up by 10 per cent, shoplifting is up by 137 per cent and violent crime is up by 13 per cent—all of which stands to reason, since the reoffending rate is at about 44 per cent.