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Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee 03 March 2026 [Draft]

03 Mar 2026 · S6 · Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee

Item of business

Draft Climate Change Plan

Emma Pinchbeck (Climate Change Committee) Watch on SPTV

To start with the good news, we find that Scotland’s emissions decreased by more than 2.6 per cent between 2021 and 2023. Overall emissions have now more than halved compared with 1990 base levels. It is important to say that those historical emissions reductions have been delivered largely by decarbonising the power sector. A key message from us this year is that we need to focus significantly more on areas in which Scotland has devolved powers. We find that about 58 per cent of the emissions reductions that are outlined in the CCP come from sectors in which the Scottish Government has devolved powers.Since our previous progress report, Scotland has accepted the advice on carbon budgets, legislated for those targets and produced the CCP. We find that Scotland’s first carbon budget, which is for 2026 to 2030, is achievable, and that around 91 per cent of the emissions reductions for that period are covered by credible plans in the CCP.However, we are concerned about planning for carbon budgets beyond 2030. Net zero by 2045 is achievable, but much clearer plans for delivery will be needed. We draw attention to two particular areas. On heat in buildings, we are concerned that there is not much detail or planning for the next 10 years. There is an assumption of decarbonisation in the last years of the 2030s; we cannot see evidence that such a delay and catch-up approach will work.Similarly, Scotland leads the UK on tree planting, and it is important for emissions reductions from Scotland and the UK as a whole that Scotland continues to plant trees at a sufficient rate. However, following the cuts to the forestry grant scheme, those rates, which were previously at record levels, have been plummeting.09:15I will draw members’ attention to some specific and technical issues with the climate change plan. There is an intent in the CCP to track emissions progress at sub-sector level and to develop early warning indicators, which is very welcome. However, there are some missing indicators and some indicators that are insufficient. In particular, there are no indicators on the deployment of low-carbon heating, livestock numbers, recycling rates and so on.I will highlight three significant areas of the methodology. First, the Scottish Government has accounted for emissions reductions from peatland on the basis of new evidence. Although it is welcome that it is doing research on peatland emissions, we are worried that the way in which it has integrated that into its assumptions in relation to emissions reductions and the baseline might lead to a possible overestimate of the benefits of that research in its accounting.Secondly, we think that the significant emissions reductions from heat in buildings are because of people responding to record high energy prices and warmer winters. Therefore, they are not structural or permanent emissions reduction changes. People turning down their heating is not a change that we want to be maintained. However, we think that that has been baked into the assumptions that the Government is making, and we would like that to be looked at.Thirdly, contingencies have not been given for areas of high risk, including the dependency on negative emissions technologies.I will make a final brief point, which is simply to flag that, this spring, we will publish our advice to the UK as a whole on climate risk and resilience. It is obvious that Scotland is already being affected by the impacts of climate change on key areas of the economy and on the prosperity and wellbeing of Scottish people.A central recommendation in our progress report and in our advice to the Scottish Government—and to the UK Government—is for there to be more focus on communicating to the public the risks of climate change and on communicating what the Government is trying to achieve through carbon budgets and what actions will need to be taken by the Government, business and individuals. I noticed that, in this committee’s report on the draft CCP, that point was pulled out by people who gave evidence, so I wanted to flag that.

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Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee 03 March 2026 [Draft]

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