Hansard

In my statement to the Parliament on 3 February, I announced my intention to lay regulations to change the automatic release point for some short-term prisoners to 30 per cent of their sentence. I am taking that action because the prison population remains unsustainably high and to ensure that the prison estate is safe for those who work and live there. The decision was not taken lightly, and public safety and the protection of victims remain priorities.

Before making regulations to change the release point, Scottish ministers must, by law, consult a range of named organisations, as well as any other persons they consider appropriate. The Scottish Government wrote to the consultees after my statement to the Parliament last Tuesday, and 28 responses were received. A broad range of views were expressed, and it will not be possible to outline all of those to the Parliament today; however, in the interests of transparency, it is my intention to publish responses that were shared during the consultation, where permission is given. My officials have written to respondents to seek their permission to share the responses that were provided.

In general, there was a recognition of the impact and risks of having a high prison population. Some respondents felt that the proposals were necessary to mitigate those impacts; others wanted the focus to be on longer-term reform to address underlying drivers of the prison population, alongside an analysis of the measures undertaken. I will say more today on the need for that change to be delivered alongside longer-term reform.

A range of issues were raised by consultees, including the need for clearer information for victims and the wider public on release arrangements, to support public protection and to manage the impact on demand for public sector services and on the community, and, consequently, the impact that that could have on the outcomes for those being released.

I have listened to those views, and I and my officials will continue to work with stakeholders on all aspects of delivery. The Scottish Government and the Scottish Prison Service will work with victim support organisations to raise awareness of those changes and to encourage those who are eligible to sign up to the victim notification scheme to do so. When a release date changes as a result of the legislation, all registered victims will be notified of the new release date in advance.

It is critical that partners have time to plan and prepare support for people who are leaving custody. That is why the changes will not take effect until after the early emergency release scheme ends, in April. Those who are eligible for immediate release will be released in tranches, to help to manage the impact on community services. I am committed to reviewing the impact of those changes next year.

I have always been clear that there is no single or simple solution to an issue that has been faced elsewhere in the United Kingdom and beyond. However, there are solutions that do not compromise public safety. As a Parliament and as a society, we need to discuss how we can achieve a system in which justice is served and the right balance between effective community justice and imprisonment is struck.

I am therefore pleased that the independent sentencing and penal policy commission published its final recommendations last week. I am grateful to the commissioners and the chair, Martyn Evans, for the diligent work that they have carried out. Their detailed report offers us a clear opportunity to rethink our approach as a country. By following the evidence, we can continue to safeguard the public and prioritise victims while accepting that simply increasing the prison population does not make Scotland safer. A renewed focus on prevention and reducing reoffending will lead to better outcomes for individuals, communities and our justice system as a whole.

I will set out today the Government’s response in principle to the commission’s most central recommendations, but more in-depth consideration of the 73 recommendations will be required. Ultimately, it will be for a new Government and Parliament to make decisions on the changes that are needed.

The commission has recommended a prohibition on sentences of less than one year, subject to clarity on legislative competence, and an extension of the presumption against short sentences to sentences of two years or less. We will explore those recommendations carefully and engage with the UK Government, given that some short sentences are imposed in reserved areas of law. However, I note that the UK Government has introduced a similar presumption.

Although there is a longer-term trend away from shorter sentences, a high number of them continue to be imposed. In 2023-24, 73 per cent of short-term sentences were for less than 12 months, and a further 15 per cent were for 24 months or less. We know that community sentences can be more effective in reducing reoffending than short sentences are and that short sentences can disrupt lives and adversely affect employment opportunities, housing stability and access to healthcare. Indeed, the reconviction rate for those who were given community payback orders in 2021-22 was 28.4 per cent, compared with 52.6 per cent for those who completed custodial sentences of one year or less. However, as the commission points out,

“If greater numbers of people are to be sentenced in the community, victims’ interests, safety, and confidence must be”

central, and that

“shift must be accompanied by clear safeguards and credible measures that protect victims”.

I agree with the commission’s observation that investment is needed to

“underpin delivery of high quality community disposals”.

The Government will invest a further £10 million in community justice services in 2026-27, taking our total investment to a record £169 million. That increase builds on additional investment of £25 million over the past two years, underlining the Government’s commitment to strengthening community justice across Scotland.

In line with the recommendations, we will also focus on simplification, flexibility and enhancing support, recognising that tailored and targeted interventions that address the drivers of offending behaviour can often be more effective.

The commission also recommends explicitly excluding the possibility of remand in cases in which

“there is no real prospect of”

a short custodial sentence. Significant progress has been made in relation to that via the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023, which introduced a new bail test that is aimed at ensuring that remand is used as a last resort. We are seeing an increase in the capacity of, and confidence in, alternatives to remand, with a total of 1,500 bail supervision cases in 2024-25. I note that a recent change has been made in England and Wales to apply fewer exceptions to bail where there is no real prospect of an immediate custodial sentence. We will be able to learn from their experience.

The commission recommends that different uses of electronic monitoring technology be considered. There has already been sustained progress in relation to that, with almost 2,500 people being electronically monitored on any given day. The Scottish Prison Service expects to make use of GPS for home detention curfews in the next few months, and we will consider where else that technology can be deployed.

The commission also makes a clear recommendation on the release point for long-term prisoners. As I have previously stated to the Parliament, I remain committed to reviewing that in order to achieve a better balance between time spent in custody and time spent in the community under strict licence conditions as part of a person’s overall sentence. Having looked at the evidence, the commission considered that extended supervision would be beneficial to the management of risk as well as for reducing reoffending. We will carefully consider the commission’s recommended option of reverting to the release point of two thirds of the way through a sentence, which was in place prior to 2016.

As the commission points out, Scotland is not uniquely criminal and should not inherently have a higher prison population than any other country. It has provided us with the opportunity to make bold, evidence-based changes across the justice system, and, once again, I thank it for its commendable work.

We must be open-minded and collaborative, as other countries have been. Where safe, appropriate and more effective alternatives to prison exist, we should use them. The evidence clearly shows that a high prison population does not equal a safer society. Instead, the recommendations can support a reduction in reoffending and, therefore, a continued reduction in crime. We all want to see that.