Meeting of the Parliament 12 June 2025
It is an excellent question. The figures fluctuate considerably from month to month, and I am tracking them very closely. There are a number of elements to the drivers of economic inactivity. Some are historical, where particular demographics or communities have a significantly higher rate of economic inactivity rate and have done for many years. Some of that is quite stubborn, although it is difficult to use that word in relation to human beings. More recently, some of it has been driven by the experience of the pandemic—that is another element that economists and people in Public Health Scotland are pointing to. Where people left the job market during Covid, they have been slower to return to it. The third element is probably similar across the UK, and it relates to those who need to access healthcare support—either mental health support or other forms of support.
My answer to Daniel Johnson is that the interventions required to help each of those cohorts are very different. People often lump together people who are economically inactive as one homogeneous group, but they really are not. Some fascinating work is going on with Public Health Scotland as well as with employers to find how we reach different cohorts. For the cohort that needs healthcare intervention, in one sense, it is not on the employer to provide support, but where somebody is finding it difficult to access the labour market because of changes that an employer can make, Public Health Scotland is working with employers to make those changes.
That is the high-level answer, but I would be more than happy to involve Daniel Johnson—and Liz Smith, as I see that she is nodding at me—and anyone else in some of the work that we are doing with Public Health Scotland. I find it a particularly fascinating piece of work because there is a lack of homogeneity in that cohort.
The actions that I talked about are important, but they are not sufficient. It is no secret that our country is facing significant population challenges. Migration is predicted to be the sole driver of population growth for decades to come. Right now, we need people to come here to live and work, to bolster our working-age population. Our positive reputation helps, and we already see evidence of Scotland attracting people from all nationalities. In the year to mid-2023, net migration into Scotland was higher than in any other year in the past decade. Of the 61,581 people who moved here that year, the majority were of working age and probably therefore taxpayers, too. That is a great thing for Scotland.
Migration to the economy is like adding rich compost to the soil. Just as that brings nutrients to plants, migration introduces fresh talent, skills and innovation, and it boosts productivity in our sectors. When that is abundant, businesses expand, new jobs are created and economic growth happens. Without that, plants struggle to survive and thrive.
Our economy, like many others, depends on migration to sustain our public services, fill gaps in the workforce and drive our long-term prosperity. The food processing sector, for example, has calculated that nearly 45 per cent of its workforce comes from overseas—27 per cent are from the European Union and 17 per cent are more international. Most come to Scotland through a skilled worker visa. The sector has a strong retention record and is an important employer in many of our rural communities.
Rural communities, especially, are facing challenges from population change. Areas where people traditionally built their lives, businesses and connections are now struggling as families and workers move away to follow opportunities, leaving local services and businesses struggling and local economies weaker for it.