Meeting of the Parliament 06 October 2022
I have a lot to get through.
If we told someone that their rent might be frozen but that, by this time next year, when they want to move, the market might look completely different—fewer flats might be on the market, rents might be higher because demand outstrips supply and applicants might be fighting hundreds of others for a single property, as is already happening in our cities—we might get a different answer.
We cannot cap rent increases at zero per cent for ever. There will always be an end point if the Government holds true to its word that the cap is temporary, but that creates a cliff edge. There are genuine concerns about that and about a spike beyond affordability at the end of the temporary period. We know about that because international models and the evidence base tell us about that from when such measures have been tried in other places. Such evidence has largely been ignored—for the sake of passing the bill, I guess.
Last week, I wrote to every housing association in Inverclyde and North Ayrshire. The associations jumped at the chance to talk to me; normally, they hear from us only when we have complaints about property. They all said the same thing—that they were blind-sided by the policy. They have genuine concerns and are now scrambling around to rewrite their cash-flow and spending plans.
One housing association told me that if—I accept that it is an “if”—the rent freeze continues beyond March 2023, it will cost the association £5 million, which it wanted to spend on homes that are specifically designed for people with disabilities. Another housing association said that it was not consulted on the policy, which will—not “may”—significantly reduce the association’s ability to maintain existing homes to a high standard. If that organisation’s assumption is wrong, the Government must say why it is wrong.
People from another housing association who rang my office yesterday after watching the news were aghast—they said that the cost of the rent freeze will equate to their entire kitchen and heating repair bill. That association has squirreled away a huge pot of money for a rainy day, and—my goodness—we are heading into rainy days.
The common themes in all of the responses that I got from the housing associations can be summed up quite simply. They are all frustrated at the abject lack of consultation before the bill came to us; they are furious that the Government was not listening to them; and although, of course, they understand the pressures on people, they are keen to stress that they are already doing their level best to take measures to support people. They want people to live in well-heated, well-looked-after homes, which is better than people having no home at all.
Yesterday, I made the point that not all landlords are lolling around in buckets of cash. Many rely on their single rental income as part of their pension or as their sole income. That does not make that scenario right, but that is a reality that seems to have been missed. Mr Rennie is completely correct, because it is not just the intention of the bill that we are voting on that matters; the perception of it will also matter, specifically to landlords.
I will close by making another plug for amendment 81, about data, which I lodged and which the Government defeated yesterday. Mark Griffin made a point about that yesterday as well. Data is so important to what happens next, if the bill is passed. Without data, we will have no idea whether the legislation is having a positive or negative effect on the housing market. I want to know that, because data cannot be that hard to come by. Surely, civil servants can produce those reports. If we are worried that the warnings from many quarters about the consequences of the bill might ring true, I want to know that when the time comes. Nobody wants a depleted private rental market—that benefits no one.
I end where I started: rushed law, even if the general principle of it was well meaning, which I think it was in this case, will have consequences. As always, we will not know until it is too late.
16:11