Hansard

Following the Deputy First Minister’s budget statement yesterday, I am pleased to have the chance to provide more detail on completing the dualling of the A9 between Perth and Inverness. I know that this statement is keenly anticipated, especially by those who are concerned to see safety improvements developed on the A9 and by the many Scottish communities and businesses for whom the A9 is essential. I am acutely aware of the strength of feeling on the issue.

The programme has faced challenges, and I acknowledge that it has not progressed at the pace that we would have liked. There have, of course, been particular challenges, with sky-high inflation causing slippage in major capital projects. However, the A9 is the backbone of Scotland. It must be safe, reliable and resilient, and that is what the Government will deliver.

When I assumed responsibility for transport in Cabinet in June, my primary objectives for the A9 project were threefold. The first was to oversee amendments to Transport Scotland’s approach to procurement of its design and build contracts in order to improve prospects and avoid a repeat of last year’s experiences with the section between Tomatin and Moy. The second was to finalise a delivery plan for dualling the remaining sections of the programme that foregrounded certainty of delivery but carefully balanced that against considerations of market capacity, affordability and the need to minimise disruption on the network. Finally, in the meantime, the objective was to progress interim safety interventions short of, and in anticipation of, dualling. I will address each of those issues.

Although my remarks will focus principally on the remainder of the programme, I will first say a word on the Tomatin to Moy section. Following the outcome of the first procurement for that section, Transport Scotland undertook extensive market consultation with the construction industry to gather views on how its major road projects could generate improved tender competition. As a result of that engagement, the new engineering contract, with amendments, was adopted for use for a new procurement for the Tomatin to Moy section.

The change in contracting approach was welcomed by the Civil Engineering Contractors Association. The new engineering contract is preferred by the industry and is widely used across the United Kingdom, with the terms and conditions that have been adopted by Transport Scotland now offering a more balanced approach to the sharing of risk between Scottish ministers and those to whom we provide contracts.

I confirm that, on 11 December this year, invitations to participate in dialogue were issued to three short-listed contractors, and it is expected that the contract will be awarded in early summer 2024, with the completed dualling expected to be operational by the end of 2027.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government has been determinedly considering procurement options for dualling the remaining eight sections. Options that have been considered include procuring all projects using either a design and build contract or a mutual investment model, which is used by the Welsh Government, or using public-private partnership contracts. Indeed, we considered a hybrid of both approaches.

We have also considered carefully how works will be sequenced to provide an efficient overall programme that aligns with the market’s capacity to deliver, that minimises disruption to road users and that is achievable within the wider financial constraints. As the Deputy First Minister outlined yesterday, the UK, having not inflation proofed its capital budget, has left us with a nearly 10 per cent real-terms cut in our capital funding between 2023-24 and 2027-28.

This has been a complex exercise, but the Government has concluded that a hybrid approach is the best way to complete the A9 dualling programme. I therefore confirm that the Government will progress the three remaining A9 dualling projects at the southern end of the route via three capital-funded design and build contracts. We then anticipate progressing the five remaining projects in the north and central stretches via two resource-funded MIM contracts. That is subject to on-going due diligence and further decision making in late 2025, and it will be based on an updated assessment of expected market conditions.

I confirm that, in progressing the delivery plan, work will begin immediately on preparations for the procurement for the next design and build contract, which will be for the Tay crossing to Ballinluig project, with the contract notice planned for publication in spring 2024 and the award anticipated to be made in summer 2025.

In addition, procurement for the Pitlochry to Killiecrankie project and, subject to completion of statutory processes, the Pass of Birnam to Tay crossing project will commence in summer 2025 and summer 2027, respectively.

Subject to decision making in late 2025, procurement for the two remaining northern projects, under a single MIM contract, could commence in winter 2026-27, with procurement for the second MIM contract comprising the remaining three central projects commencing in 2028-29.

The hybrid approach will create a rolling programme of construction that will lead to the progressive opening of the dualled sections. Under the new plan, we anticipate that, by the end of 2030, nearly 50 per cent of the A9 will be open as dual carriageway, rising to 85 per cent by the end of 2033 and, eventually, to 100 per cent by the end of 2035. That means that we will see significant benefits from the dualling programme years ahead of the backstop in 2035. We have published all the details of the programme on the Transport Scotland website today.

As part of our work, we have prepared updated scheme cost estimates for each project. The total cost of the programme is now estimated to be £3.7 billion at April 2023 prices. When adjusted for inflation, that is equivalent to £2.45 billion at April 2008 prices, which members will note is well within the original cost estimate of £3 billion at 2008 prices.

Having talked about cost, I now want to talk about safety. The improved safety that is expected from dualling is crucial. I take this opportunity to offer my heartfelt sympathies and my condolences to anyone who has lost a loved one or, indeed, been injured in collisions on the A9.

Dualling will reduce driver stress and accidents. Likewise, the severity of accidents and journey times for emergency vehicles will be reduced. Dualling offers resilience, limiting the need for lengthy diversions. At the same time, the A9 is critical to the movements of freight and of business and leisure travellers. Dualling improves reliability and average journey times by 20 per cent. That is transformative for a route that serves 35 per cent of our land mass and carries around 10 per cent of Scotland’s gross domestic product in terms of cargo.

Investment in the route will help to grow the economy, but the impact will be wider than the economic aspect. The A9 is the backbone that connects central and highland Scotland and, for the 10,000 people who live along it, it is often the only connection to vital services. Investment will also maximise the range of opportunities for contractors and their long supply chains. The programme will ensure that the link between two of Scotland’s great cities is safe and fit for purpose for everyone who needs to use it now and in the future.

Comprehensive stakeholder engagement on the delivery plan will begin early in the new year, building on the extensive engagement to date. As a first step, I will write to interested MSPs today to invite them to a briefing in the Parliament. Regular engagement will continue as the programme progresses, including, of course, with local communities on individual projects.

In the meantime, anyone with an interest in the A9 can sign up for updates at www.a9dualling.scot, prior to the full launch of a new A9 dualling website early in the new year. We will advertise engagement opportunities here and through traditional and social media.

Decisions to complete the statutory process are now complete for more than 92 per cent of the programme. We will complete the statutory process for the three outstanding schemes with ministerial consent next year and will acquire the necessary land to support the procurement timetable.

The only project not to have started that process is the Pass of Birnam to Tay crossing. I thank the local community for their valuable input through the co-creative process and, today, I can announce that the preferred route for that section is confirmed and that it includes a number of the elements of the community’s preferred options, including a roundabout at Dunkeld and the junction layouts at the Hermitage and Dalguise. Further details of the preferred route, such as the programme, are available on Transport Scotland’s website, and local communities and road users will have the opportunity to comment on the plans at public exhibitions in January.

I would like to say a word on safety in the time that I have left to speak. Having provided an update on Tomatin to Moy and the remainder of the programme, I want to close with the issue of safety because, since 2007, the Government has invested £300 million in the maintenance and safety of the A9 and a further £3.6 million on average speed cameras.

Following the tragic loss of life that has occurred on the route, particularly in 2022, we have been investing an additional £5 million, approximately, and I am pleased to confirm that those safety measures are progressing at pace, with a number of elements completed. Those include enhancements to signage and road markings, with particular emphasis at junctions and those transitions between dual and single carriageway sections. As is the case with the rest of the trunk road network, the safety performance of the A9 will continue to be regularly reviewed.

Time is against me, so I will conclude. Today, this Government restates its commitment to dualling the A9 between Perth and Inverness, which we are doing with a concrete plan. The approach that I have set out means that the Highlands can have confidence that the considerable benefits of the A9 dualling programme will be delivered and in full. Now that we have reached that point, there will be no let up. When construction starts on Tomatin to Moy next year, under this delivery programme, it will roll continually until the route between Perth and Inverness is fully dualled.