Hansard

The United Kingdom Government’s Northern Ireland Protocol Bill had its second reading in the House of Commons on Monday. The European Union considers the bill illegal. Many in the Commons also doubt its legality; others warn that it will undermine the UK’s international reputation; and still more point out that the bill fails to bring the Democratic Unionist Party back into power sharing in Northern Ireland, or to advance trade talks with either the EU or the United States of America. However, not a single Conservative MP voted against the legislation.

I will focus my remarks on three issues that are of utmost interest to all colleagues in the Parliament: first, the issue of legislative consent, which Conservative members seemed to have forgotten about when they told us last week that the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was none of our business; secondly, the question of international law, which itself is related to whether the Scottish Government can recommend consent; and thirdly, the potential direct impact and damage that will be caused to people in Scotland, should the bill become law.

The Northern Ireland Protocol is a key part of the withdrawal agreement that the UK Prime Minister signed with the EU in 2019. Indeed, without the protocol, it is clear that there would not have been a deal at all between the EU and the UK. So good was that deal, according to Boris Johnson, that when he signed it, he hailed it as a “fantastic moment” and went on to fight a general election on the basis that he had “got Brexit done”.

However, the bill unilaterally disapplies, or affords the UK Government powers to disapply, the legislation that enforces parts of the protocol in the UK. In other words, the UK Government wants to tear up that self-same apparently fantastic deal and renege on the UK Government’s commitment and international obligations. It wants the Scottish Government to recommend consent for the bill that does the tearing up, and for this Parliament to agree that recommendation.

To address the first issue directly, it is inconceivable that the Scottish Government could recommend agreeing to such a legislative consent motion.

That brings me to my second point, on the question of international law. It is the opinion of all—except, seemingly, the UK Government—that the legislation, if it were implemented, would breach international law. The bill deliberately sets the UK on an entirely avoidable collision course with our fellow Europeans in the EU, and it leaves the UK increasingly isolated in the court of world opinion.

Following the introduction of the bill, European Commission vice-president, Maros Šefcovic, stated:

“Let there be no doubt: there is no legal, nor political justification whatsoever for unilaterally changing an international agreement ... Let’s call a spade a spade: this is illegal.”

He was not alone in that view. That view was echoed across European capitals, and it is held not just in Europe. Senior US officials do not

“believe that unilateral steps are going to be the most effective way to address the challenges facing the implementation of the protocol”.

Most important of all, perhaps, is the view from Northern Ireland. More than half the members of the Northern Ireland legislative Assembly have rejected the UK Government’s actions as “utterly reckless”. They are reckless in terms of negotiating with the EU, reckless with regard to the United States and reckless with regard to the Belfast Good Friday agreement.

Legal commentators tend to agree that the proposals could breach international law. That is deeply concerning, but not surprising. It is not surprising from a Government that, in 2020, brazenly said that its legislation to amend the withdrawal agreement would

“break international law in a ... limited and specific way”—[Official Report, House of Commons, 8 September 2020; Vol 679, c 509.]

as though that was okay. Jonathan Jones QC, the former head of the UK Government legal department, has described the legal position as “hopeless”.

In reference to the legality of the proposed legislation, let me turn to the Labour amendment. Obviously, the bill would need to complete its parliamentary passage and be commenced by the UK Government to breach international law. The legal position would depend on conditions at the time, as well as other factors and arguments about which we do not currently have full information. However, on that basis, the Government is content to accept the Labour amendment.

Let me turn to the Scottish interests. It is clear that the bill damages even further the UK Government’s relationship with our largest trading partner. It causes business and investor uncertainty, and it risks sparking a damaging trade war. I cannot think of anything more irresponsible than launching that confrontational action in the middle of a cost of living crisis, when the UK is at real risk of entering a recession.

It has been estimated that, so far, Brexit has cost the UK economy £31 billion. We know that Scotland’s total trade with the EU was 16 per cent lower in 2021 than it was in 2019, while its trade with non-EU countries fell by only 4 per cent in the same period.

Many of the difficulties that Scottish businesses face are a direct result of the UK Government’s decision to adopt a hard Brexit outside of the single market and the customs union. When our supply chains interact with EU businesses—be it for materials, finished goods or labour and skills—that approach has made it harder and more costly for businesses to operate.

Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge, has warned of even tougher times ahead and the risk of iconic Scottish products such as whisky, salmon and cashmere being affected in the event of a trade war. That is hugely concerning. Scottish salmon exports to the EU alone are worth £370 million and account for two thirds of the sector’s exports. Any retaliatory measures for the sector would be expected to impact many of Scotland’s rural communities and supply chain operators.

Clearly, in embarking on an utterly senseless and self-defeating course of action, the UK Government has provoked an unwinnable conflict, with likely catastrophic consequences for many people. Scotland cannot, and must not, accept that.

The protocol allows Northern Ireland to be simultaneously in the EU’s single market and in the UK’s internal market. It is disingenuous for the UK Government to claim that the protocol is doing harm to Northern Ireland’s economy. Just a month ago, Stephen Kelly, the head of Manufacturing Northern Ireland, stated the exact opposite. He said:

“Every piece of evidence presented so far shows a positive impact”.

That view is echoed by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which found that Northern Ireland’s economic output had recently outperformed the UK average. Similarly, the chief analyst of the Ulster Bank has noted that the number of manufacturing jobs in Northern Ireland is growing four times faster than the UK average.