Hansard

Times like this make us think carefully about what this place stands for. Members have stood together this afternoon to condemn what is happening in Ukraine at the hands of Vladimir Putin. The absence of any amendments to the motion for debate shows how strong the unity across the chamber is. We may have very strong party-political differences, but the principles of democracy matter far more. It is those principles of democracy that are currently at stake in Ukraine and across the world.

Like several other members, I woke this morning to the sound of air raid sirens and shelling on Nick Robinson’s BBC broadcast from Kyiv. Those were not the air raid sirens and shells to which we have become accustomed in history documentaries: the sirens and shelling were for real. The BBC’s report was chilling, as has been the case throughout today’s media broadcasts.

Hearing BBC reporters describe buildings in the centre of Kyiv made me recall my only visit to the city, back in 1991. That followed several visits that I had made to Leningrad and Moscow in the late 1980s, as a young teacher interested in Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost. Like other Soviet states that declared their independence in 1991, Ukraine was emerging from 70 years of totalitarianism, having suffered civil war in the Bolshevik revolution, famine in the 1930s, brutal Nazi occupation in the second world war and then purges and economic stagnation. Our guide told us that there was a strong reawakening of Ukrainian identity. That was evident from the talk of democracy in cafes and bars and from the flying of the Ukrainian flag, with its sharp blue and yellow denoting the sky above the golden prairies, in places where it would previously have been banned.

The story of Ukraine since then is largely the story of its attempts to define a new future for itself in Europe and of Russia’s attempts to disrupt that new direction at every turn. That obstruction has now become unprovoked military aggression and a flagrant disregard for international law. Vladimir Putin’s illegal actions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions violate the Minsk protocol and this morning’s military manoeuvres elsewhere are final proof—if any were needed—that the Russian Government is intent on expanding its sphere of influence westwards, no doubt with the aid of Belarus.

The invasion has happened because the Ukrainian people have had the guts to stand up to Russian influence and to declare that they have no wish to be held hostage by Putin. Like us, they wish to guard their precious democracy.

Russia’s actions are repugnant, not only because of the likely killing of thousands of innocent people or because of the humanitarian disaster that will inevitably follow, but because of the fear that Russia could use its recent so-called recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as an excuse for the future annexation of other former Soviet states. As the First Minister said, it may also encourage other dictatorships to do the same.

Where are we right now? First, the combined intelligence of the United States, Britain and NATO in recent weeks has proven to be entirely accurate, despite some scepticism in various quarters that that was not the case. To some extent, that accuracy is reassuring, and it perhaps helps us to understand better exactly what is happening on the ground, which can better inform the strategy of what has now become a wholly unified west.

We know that the Ukrainian army, although it is not able to take on the military might of Russia, is much bigger and better prepared than it was eight years ago. We know, too, that the recent lessons of history in Afghanistan send a very strong warning signal to Putin that any invasion, which could be long and bloody, against a country of such size as Ukraine does not end well for the aggressor. This is not Georgia or Chechnya—bad as those situations were—but something much bigger.

There is something else in the equation, and that is the response of the Russian people themselves, who have little appetite for the war or for Putin’s aggression. They know that the war would bring death not only to a vast number of Ukrainian citizens but to Russian citizens, too. The image of Russian body bags at the door of the Kremlin would not sit well with Russian public opinion and might have much greater influence on Putin himself than will the economic sanctions imposed by the west. We should make no mistake about it: those sanctions have to happen as part of the punishment of Putin, but we should not be fooled into thinking that they are the only factor that will drive Putin’s reactions.

The sanctions that are imposed to further curtail the activities of the Russian state and the economy have to happen in conjunction with the agreement of our G7 allies. That joint action is vital, as nothing would be better received by Putin than disunity among the west. It will inevitably mean that difficult decisions need to be taken, such as restricting the imports of Russian gas that have, for nations such as Germany in particular, been so crucial.

What is critical about the past 24 hours is the fact that Putin has actually succeeded in uniting the west at a time when there had been tensions and some division. Sanctions are now agreed—there are more coming—as is the need for them to be focused on Putin’s oligarchs and his financial backers, including those who have sought to harbour their wealth in the UK.

However, it is also important that we increase support to our NATO allies. The UK Government has already doubled the size of its deployment in Estonia, where the British Army leads NATO’s battle groups, including tanks and armoured vehicles. As the Prime Minister said, we have to be supportive of the Baltic states. We must honour those commitments.

The current actions by Russia are a very serious threat to world peace, and they threaten to bring about a geopolitical realignment that is unprecedented since the end of the cold war. Vladimir Putin is guilty of so many falsehoods to justify his actions—a trademark of dictatorship. There is no doubt that his actions, should they be allowed to continue, will be catastrophic for his own people, as well as for Ukrainian citizens. We cannot—indeed, we must not—stand by and watch, because if we do, we will witness the resurgence of authoritarian regimes across the world, whose attacks against democracies will only be emboldened.