Hansard

The most recent seven-day rate of Covid-19 cases is 262 per 100,000, with a test positivity rate of 10.1 per cent. Public Health Scotland figures that are to be released at noon are expected to show that the new variant of concern is increasing in its dominance. Members will recall that it increases the rate of infection by between 0.4 and 0.7, so we face a more perilous situation than we have faced at any point in this pandemic.

Although our national health service is hard pressed—yet again, we owe a huge debt of gratitude to our NHS and social care staff—we have more at our hand with which to fight the virus. In addition to a high level of compliance with restrictions and a significantly expanding testing programme with increased capacity and new technologies, we have the national vaccine programme, on which I will update Parliament today.

Between 8 December, when we began the national vaccination programme, and 12 January, we have given a first dose of vaccination to just over 80 per cent of care home residents, to 55 per cent of care home staff and to just under 52 per cent of front-line NHS and social care staff. In the eight days since 4 January, we have given a first dose to just over 2 per cent of those aged 80 or over who live in the community. The programme scales up rapidly from this week, and, by the first week in February, we will complete 100 per cent of the first-dose vaccinations for all those groups. Overall, a total of 191,965 people have received their first dose of the Covid vaccination, and 2,990 have received their second dose. All that data is based on the latest management information as of 8:30 am this morning.

We currently have supplies coming through of the two authorised vaccines—the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. Our planning scales up delivery, so we will be able to vaccinate an average of around 400,000 people a week by the end of February. The Moderna vaccine is now the third vaccine to have been approved, and, as with the others, we will receive our population share of the supply that the United Kingdom Government Vaccines Taskforce secured on behalf of the four UK nations. We currently expect the Moderna vaccine to be available to us from early April, and, as before, we will use it in line with the Joint Committee on Vaccines and Immunisation’s advice.

As members know, the JCVI priority list, which includes those who are aged 50 and upwards, reflects the fact that age is the greatest risk factor for serious illness and death from Covid, and it represents more than 90 per cent of the preventable mortality from Covid-19 in Scotland.

To save lives, particularly in the face of such an infectious new strain, the priority is to vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible. With that in mind, and on review of the clinical trial data, the advice was given to prioritise first doses that provide a high level of protection, with evidence of a minimum 70 per cent effectiveness from 14 to 21 days after vaccination, and to deliver the second dose within 12 weeks from the first. Therefore, our planning has been realigned to do just that. The second dose remains important, as it lengthens the time for which immunity is present. Everyone will receive their second dose within 12 weeks of their first, and the second dose will be the same vaccine as the first.

As of today, we have a total Scottish vaccine allocation of 562,125 doses. Of that number, 365,000 doses have arrived in Scottish vaccination centres or are with health boards or general practitioners. A further 155,025 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 42,100 doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine are either in transit or in storage at Movianto UK for Scotland to access. This afternoon, I will publish our deployment plan, which sets out more detail. The plan will be updated as we go through the weeks ahead, and I will continue to update members on it. However, I will set out now some of the detail of the supply that we have to date and the plans that are under way for workforce and vaccine locations.

By the first week in February, all JCVI priority groups 1 and 2—residents in care homes for older adults, care home staff, front-line health and social care staff and those aged 80 and over who are living in the community—will have received their first vaccine dose. With the levels of vaccine stock that we currently have, and with the projected deliveries over the next few weeks, we will, beginning in February, vaccinate people aged 70 and over by mid-February and those aged over 65 and those who are clinically extremely vulnerable by the beginning of March. In all, that will cover JCVI priority groups 1 to 5, which means that a total of just over 1.4 million eligible individuals will have been vaccinated with the first dose.

The second-dose vaccination will run in parallel, starting from the end of February. Our current modelling of required supply indicates that we will deliver around 400,000 vaccinations a week from the end of February. Over that period, we will use a range of different settings to deliver the vaccine, including care homes, for residents and staff; GP practices, health centres and local clinics, primarily for those aged 80 and over and for the clinically extremely vulnerable; and occupational health and vaccination centres for NHS and social care staff. For those who find it difficult to get to a local centre, we will take the vaccination to them in their home.

As we go through February and into March, more local vaccination sites will come on board, including community pharmacies, mobile vaccination clinics, small-scale mass vaccination centres and large vaccination centres that are capable of delivering in excess of 20,000 vaccinations a week in a single location. Some of those large sites have already been secured, such as the Aberdeen exhibition and conference centre, the Ravenscraig sports facility in Motherwell, Queen Margaret University in Musselburgh, and the Edinburgh International Conference Centre. Right now, the NHS Louisa Jordan is, among its other work, acting as a vaccination centre, but rapid work is under way to secure more sites across the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area. In the weeks ahead, I will provide members and the public with updates to the location map that appears in the deployment plan that I will publish today.

As larger numbers of people for whom local travel is easier become eligible, the centres are initially planning an 8 am to 8 pm opening, but we can extend those hours if that proves more convenient for people. We currently have a team of around 33 military personnel supporting our programme, and I am pleased that we have now finalised plans to increase that support to our larger centres in order to provide fast and assured site preparation and ensure that the facilities are in place for our mass vaccination centres.

Critical to all of that is the workforce—both vaccinators and support staff. The plan to vaccinate 400,000 people a week requires a daily workforce capacity of approximately 1,700 whole-time equivalent vaccinators and 950 WTE support staff. To achieve that level, we need a head count of 3,400 vaccinators, depending on the proportion of part-time and full-time staff. We currently have just under 5,500 individual vaccinators registered, not including all participating GPs. In addition to local health board training, over 4,000 people have taken part in national training to administer the Pfizer vaccine, and 4,700 have received training on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

We continue to build additional capacity, bringing on board more community healthcare practitioners including pharmacists, dentists and optometrists. We receive daily offers of help, which we can now route through our national facility to place people close to where they live and to secure the additional training that they need.

We are working with the voluntary and community sector to set up a centralised volunteer co-ordination hub for deployment at mass vaccination centres, making good use of the support that is offered locally. A number of local and national organisations and businesses have offered to be involved. Our national contact facility will receive those offers from now on and will ensure that each is considered carefully and used where possible. I am very grateful to the many individuals, business and organisations who have stepped forward so far in that way.

Perhaps the most important thing that people want to know is when it will be their turn to be vaccinated and how they will be informed. I have given an indication, in what I have set out so far, of when they will be vaccinated, supplies allowing, and that information is set out in slightly more detail in the deployment plan. If somebody is in one of the first two priority groups, their employer, health board or local GP will contact them. If they are in one of the other groups, they will be contacted by letter or phone. If people cannot make the date or time that they are given, they can rearrange the appointment by phone or online.

We have already delivered information to every household in Scotland, and, from 21 January, a national marketing campaign will kick off. In addition, we will put out local information through local press and radio. We will, of course, continue to use national print and broadcast media to inform the wider public.

Members and the public can monitor our progress daily and weekly. Every weekday, daily updates are published by the Scottish Government on its website, providing the latest cumulative data on the number of people who have received their vaccination. From today, weekly updates will be published by Public Health Scotland, providing a more detailed breakdown of vaccinations by priority groups and geography.

As we have done up to now, I will continue to keep members informed through regular letters and detailed information and by responding as quickly as I can to specific questions. I am grateful to members for their participation in the briefing that we held on 4 January, and I am happy to repeat that if it would be helpful.

I take the opportunity to recognise the many national health service staff, Scottish Government officials, armed forces personnel, local authority colleagues and third sector partners who have worked—and continue to work—so hard to get us to this stage. I also recognise the many people involved at every stage, from vaccine production to procurement to delivery, as well as all those who are coming forward to volunteer their help. The programme to vaccinate 4.45 million adults in Scotland is a national effort, and each one of those people is playing a vital part in that. They have my grateful thanks.

The vaccine offers us hope, and, as we vaccinate more and more of our fellow citizens, that hope becomes more real. However, on its own, it will not be enough to win the race against the virus. Each one of us needs to do all that we can—following the guidance, abiding closely to the restrictions, washing our hands, wearing face coverings and maintaining a 2m distance from one other—to slow down the spread of the virus and to suppress its prevalence as low as we can, so that increasing vaccination can do the job that we need it to do. Doing all of that will protect us, protect the NHS and save lives.