Meeting of the Parliament 05 February 2020
John Mason makes a reasonable point in relation to the original forecast of tax revenues, but my point is that we now have much better information for the forecasts. We cannot blame the relative drop in income tax receipts on a forecasting error when the problem is the inability of our economy to grow fast enough or, at least, in line with the UK average.
In our discussions on the issue, we should never forget that Scotland benefits from a union dividend that is now worth nearly £2,000 for every man, woman and child in Scotland. That is the value of the fiscal transfer from the rest of the United Kingdom to support higher public spending in Scotland than is possible elsewhere. That payment is not primarily because the Scottish economy is performing worse than the UK average, although that is a factor; it arises substantially because of the much higher public spending levels here than exist elsewhere in the UK.
SNP members who want to draw a comparison between public spending rates in Scotland and those south of the border—as they often do—need to be honest and tell people that if we were to go down the route of independence that they propose, all that benefit would be lost, and that they have absolutely no idea how they would make up the difference or how that fiscal transfer of more than £10 billion would be replaced.
Ahead of the budget tomorrow, we have set out our position on what the finance secretary’s priorities should be. I will spell them out again for members.
With the Boris bonus and increases in the block grant, there can be no justification for any additional tax rises or further cuts to public spending. We have put forward a set of measured proposals that we have costed fully.