Meeting of the Parliament 14 June 2017
Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. I am always in your good hands.
I say to the SNP that its priorities are entirely wrong. Frankly, anybody who can describe a reduction in their share of the vote from 50 to 36 per cent as a victory needs to look at doing their sums again.
The SNP now has an opportunity to put the economy first and to set aside—clearly, with no fudging—the pursuit of independence and restore business certainty. That is what our economy needs and what the country needs.
The truth is that there are mixed reviews on the economy. Today’s positive statistics on employment and unemployment are to be welcomed, but the rise in economic inactivity remains a problem that the cabinet secretary simply brushes aside. There are 776,000 people of working age in that category, and the figure increased by 12,000 in the most recent quarter. Overall, the figure is 1 per cent higher than it is in the rest of the UK.
If confirmation is needed, members need only look to Tony Mackay of Mackay Consultants, who says that the true level of unemployment is 4.4 per cent, which is much higher than the claimant count of 2.4 per cent, or to Professor Brian Ashcroft, who pointed to the fact that real unemployment was rising more than five years ago. Indeed, the Scottish Trades Union Congress has previously expressed the concern that the official statistics do not show the real condition of our jobs market. I suggest that, instead of trying to invent an explanation about students, the cabinet secretary should recognise that the present situation is not good for our economy and do something about it.
The statistics also show that wages are declining in real terms. With inflation rising, there is less spending power and less consumer demand, which has an impact on business. Not surprisingly, the Scottish Retail Consortium is concerned about the future and, not for the first time, we have called on the Government to develop a retail strategy with the sector. I hope that the Government eventually gets round to agreeing.
If we want to make a real difference to workers and increase their spending in the economy, we need to pay them a living wage of £10 an hour, ban zero-hours contracts and provide them with the skills that businesses need for the future. In other words, we need to invest in people to drive growth in the economy.
The Government’s chief economist tells us that the Scottish economy grew in 2016. Yes it did, but only by 0.4 per cent, which was well down on expectations, and it is on a downward trajectory. In the most recent quarter, the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent, and the fear is that we could be heading for a recession. No one wants to see that happen, but instead of rising to the challenge of reversing that trend and growing the economy, the SNP has been spending its time working on its rebuttal. In advance of the next quarter’s GDP stats coming out, which will happen soon, the SNP has shifted how it analyses the measurement. It has simply stripped out London, so that we do not look so bad in comparison with the rest of the UK; then, everything is marvellous. That is the limit of the SNP’s ambition: reinterpreting and spinning the figures instead of focusing on growing the economy.