Meeting of the Parliament 28 June 2016
In common with many in this chamber and across the country, I was bitterly disappointed at the result of the European Union referendum. It felt akin to a bereavement when the results were being declared across the country. I am a great respecter of democracy but, frankly, I was horrified to see Nigel Farage celebrating his result on Friday morning and that that man was the face of Britain that was reflected to the world. I reject everything that he stands for; he certainly does not speak for me.
It is clear that David Cameron gambled with our future. He could not control the Eurosceptics in the Tory party, so he gambled on a referendum and lost. He lost, but we are all the losers. He will shortly be out of office, we may in time be out of the EU, and the price for the country in Scotland and across the UK may well be very high indeed.
People tell me that the vote to leave was an anti-establishment vote, which may be so, and we need to understand why people voted in the way that they did, but let us not pretend that Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are anything but the establishment. They went into the referendum not expecting victory and without a plan for what they would do, and they leave the country in continuing uncertainty. I abhor the approach of the leaders of the leave campaign in cynically putting at the very heart of what they said immigration and a promise to increase funding to the NHS, which they denied having made within 12 hours of the close of the poll.
I agree whole-heartedly with the sentiment of the First Minister and others that people from Europe and across the world are welcome in Scotland. Although I am disappointed by the result and angry about the nature of the campaign, I think that there is a need for stability and for cool heads. Our responsibility is to assess the impact and to take action when it is right to do so. In tandem with making representations across Europe, I believe that our immediate priority must be to take action to protect the economy and jobs, and I would be pleased to hear what the Scottish Government will do in that regard.
Before Brexit became a reality, the Fraser of Allander institute said that we were flirting with a recession in Scotland because growth was slowing, we were underperforming relative to the UK and we were facing stagnation in the economy. I regret that, in the view of many economists, the prospect of a recession is now much more likely in Scotland and across the UK. We have seen the sharp decline in the stock market wipe billions off share prices and the pound fall against the dollar and the euro. Although I hope, as I am sure we all do, that that stabilises quickly, it makes a practical focus on the economy absolutely essential. Currently, we export most to the rest of the UK, followed closely by our exports to the rest of Europe. The Government’s own statistics for 2014 show that 42 per cent of all international exports were destined for the EU, at a value of some £11.6 billion One in every six pounds in our business economy is generated by companies based in the rest of Europe, so it matters to our economic well-being.
Businesses adapt to changing circumstances, but the changes are often most keenly felt by those who work for the businesses and through a lessening in job opportunities. Already, we are hearing anecdotal evidence of changes to investment plans and companies that are paid in dollars seeing an immediate loss due to the exchange rate. One young man I know of who was about to start an engineering job in Europe has now been told to stay at home because they have no idea whether they will recruit to that job anymore.
Further, what about iconic products such as Scotch whisky? Like so much in our food and drink sector, its contribution to our gross domestic product is increasing, it represents a substantial export to Europe and it accounts for thousands of jobs. It is the impact on the people we serve on which we must focus our attention. There are views on mortgages and pensions, too, all of which might be affected.
I will home in on a couple of points about the impact on people that we need to look at. I acknowledge and welcome the reassurance given by the First Minister that having a second independence referendum is not her starting point. I say as respectfully as I can, though, that I listened to Fergus Ewing with great attention this morning on “Good Morning Scotland”, and he suggested that independence was the only answer. I therefore beg the Government not to face both ways on this.