Hansard

I am sure that many members from across the chamber will have been as shocked as I was this morning to hear Lord Forsyth, who was on the board of the Ieave campaign, bullishly tell BBC Radio Scotland that there was absolutely no need for a blueprint for Brexit and say that it was for the Government, not leave, to have such a blueprint. That betrays the arrogance and recklessness of the Brexiteers, but it is almost as disturbing that the UK Government, which called the referendum in the first place, did not have a blueprint either and that our future now appears to rest in Oliver Letwin’s hands.

The European and External Relations Committee in the previous session of Parliament saw this coming, and its inquiry into the consequences of Brexit reported earlier this year. There is a common theme running through the inquiry report: the failure of the UK Government to provide answers—indeed, the failure of the UK Government even to send a minister to listen to the concerns not just of committee members but of the witnesses who came before the committee. Those witnesses, including our universities, businesses and agricultural sector, asked what would replace the money that comes directly to Scotland from Brussels if there was a leave vote. It is worth recapping some of those sums.

EU students at Scottish universities pump £174 million a year into the Scottish economy, and £88 million of EU money goes to fund research at Scottish universities. Scottish farmers got £824 million from the EU in 2014, and the NFU Scotland says that every £1 of EU common agricultural policy payment that is paid out to Scotland puts £4 into the rural economy. European structural funds in Scotland from 2014 to 2020 are worth €985 million—we all know that those funds pay for everything from roads to employability. Rural development funding supports things as diverse as broadband and farm diversification.

As I said, that is all money that comes directly from Europe but, time and again, the report from the previous European and External Relations Committee pointed out that it was not clear that the block grant would be adjusted to compensate for the loss of those funds. That is before we consider the losses that will be incurred from losing our access to the European market and our European citizenship; more fundamentally, it is before we consider the kind of country that we wish to live in. We want to live in an open country that is welcoming to people from across Europe and other countries—quite the opposite of the terrible racism that we saw characterising the leave campaign, which others have mentioned.

Although I am not speaking today as the new convener of the Parliament’s European and External Relations Committee, I am not saying anything controversial when I state that the committee will examine the consequences of last Thursday’s vote in forensic detail and will seek to assist in pointing to a consensual way forward. I very much welcome the First Minister’s offer to meet the committee at the first opportunity.

The Government is now exploring how we can work with others, including the UK and the EU institutions, to find a way in which Scotland can stay in the EU, even if the other parts of the UK—notably England—leave it. Several senior political figures in Europe have already responded very warmly. I was very pleased to hear some of the comments from the debate in the Irish Parliament yesterday. Scotland was praised as an ancient European nation with its own jurisdiction and as a very strong supporter of the European ideal. I was also pleased to hear Scotland’s cabinet secretary with responsibility for farming, Fergus Ewing, say that yesterday his EU counterparts were very positive and sympathetic towards the predicament in which Scotland finds itself.

It is not impossible that such a compromise could be reached. We have heard about the Denmark and Greenland situation. European leaders are pragmatic when circumstances demand—for example, they rapidly absorbed East Germany into the European Community after the fall of the Berlin wall.

The committee of experts clearly has a vital role to play, but we also need to be practical. It is likely that such an arrangement may prove impossible to negotiate. I note that Sir David Edward, who will be a member of the standing committee, has expressed scepticism about achieving that compromise. I know that he will be a witness at the European and External Relations Committee on Thursday, and I very much look forward to hearing what he has to say.

I am concerned about the chances of negotiating a compromise, because much of the negotiation will require the co-operation of a Westminster Government that may soon be in the grip of leadership that is even more right wing than the leadership we currently endure. If we fail to reach that compromise, time is not on our side. Once the UK triggers the Brexit process through article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, it has just two years to do a deal. Unless the European Council agrees to extend the time, which appears unlikely given recent statements that have come out of the EU, a guillotine will fall under article 50, and the UK would be cut off with whatever deal the EU decided to give it.

We cannot have Scotland similarly marooned. If independence is then the only remaining option, we must have an independence referendum before the guillotine falls, because if we had a referendum after the guillotine fell and voted yes, we would have to renegotiate our entry into the EU from outside, which I am sure nobody wants. Kirsty Hughes, a member of Friends of Europe and a very distinguished academic on the subject who will also be a witness at the committee on Thursday, has written extensively on the subject. I look forward to hearing what she has to say, too.

Putting the legislation in place is not a headlong rush towards independence, as Willie Rennie suggested; it is an important contingency measure taken in Scotland’s best interests. The priority now is to act in the best interests of all the people of Scotland—whatever their views on independence.

I, for one, very much welcome the support of other parties across the chamber because it is really important that we act together, as one, for all the people of Scotland. We will always be led by the people of Scotland and their interests, first and foremost.