Chamber
Meeting of the Parliament 10 March 2016
10 Mar 2016 · S4 · Meeting of the Parliament
Item of business
Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill: Stage 3
The journey on fiscal forecasts has indeed been a rich tapestry, but I am delighted to say that we are getting there in the end.
The change is probably the most important change that needed to be made to the bill. It is quite right that official forecasts should be carried out by the Fiscal Commission and not by the Scottish Government. There are a number of reasons for that. Most important, the forecasts have to be independent and have to be seen to be independent.
The amendments will also get rid of a rather weak reasonableness test that would not offer much scrutiny. They will get rid of the messing about with economic determinants for non-domestic rates and look at the non-domestic rates themselves, and they will avoid, or at least weaken, the built-in optimism bias that any Government that produces forecasts is at risk of producing.
For all those reasons, I support all John Swinney’s amendments in the group.
As I said, we got there in the end. I hoped that we would get there at stage 2, but I failed to convince the cabinet secretary. I was just not quite up to the mark in convincing Mr Swinney, but I am glad to say that George Osborne was up to the mark: he managed to convince John Swinney about the right way to go. Thank goodness for the persuasive powers of George Osborne.
16:45In the same item of business
The Deputy Presiding Officer (John Scott)
Con
The next item of business is stage 3 of the Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill. Interruption. Is there a problem? Thank you, Ms Baillie. In dealing with the am...
The Deputy Presiding Officer
Con
Group 1 is on forecasting. Amendment 1, in the name of the Deputy First Minister, is grouped with amendments 2 to 6, 8, 9, 12, 15 to 18, 20, 21 and 22.
The Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Constitution and Economy (John Swinney)
SNP
I am grateful for the opportunity to speak to the amendments. The fiscal framework requires the Scottish Fiscal Commission to prepare forecasts of tax revenu...
Gavin Brown (Lothian) (Con)
Con
At this stage, does the Deputy First Minister have a view on what is meant by “sufficient time”? Does it mean a day, a week or a month?
John Swinney
SNP
In reality, I suspect that the time would probably be less than two weeks before the date of the budget. That will not be specified. We can probably shed mor...
Jackie Baillie (Dumbarton) (Lab)
Lab
I support and very much welcome amendment 1 and all the other amendments in the group. Scottish Labour first argued in January 2015 that the Fiscal Commissi...
Gavin Brown
Con
The journey on fiscal forecasts has indeed been a rich tapestry, but I am delighted to say that we are getting there in the end. The change is probably the ...
John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston) (SNP)
SNP
It is no secret that, as one of the members of the Finance Committee, I have at no point been convinced that the SFC should do the forecasting. My main reaso...
John Swinney
SNP
In her initial comments, Jackie Baillie said that she was rising to support the amendments. If that was a speech of support, I would hate to hear a speech th...
Gavin Brown
Con
In that case, did the minister encourage or attempt to persuade SNP members on the committee to change their view at stage 2?
John Swinney
SNP
I would make absolutely no attempt to try to persuade members of the committee to do anything other than what they thought was the right thing to do, in the ...
Jackie Baillie
Lab
Did the cabinet secretary perhaps share with them the negotiations that were going on on the fiscal framework?
John Swinney
SNP
As Jackie Baillie knows, I have maintained absolute confidentiality around negotiations with the Treasury, which was the proper approach for me to take to en...
The Deputy Presiding Officer
Con
Group 2 is on review of performance against fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances. Amendment 29, in the name of Jackie Baillie, is the only amen...
Jackie Baillie
Lab
Amendment 29 seeks to give the Fiscal Commission responsibility for, first, scrutinising the Government’s performance against fiscal rules and, secondly, con...
Gavin Brown
Con
I rise to support amendment 29, on fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances. As Jackie Baillie said, the Finance Committee agreed in its entirety o...
John Swinney
SNP
I welcome the opportunity to debate Jackie Baillie’s amendment, which, as she and Gavin Brown indicated, was debated at stage 2 in a different form, although...
Malcolm Chisholm (Edinburgh Northern and Leith) (Lab)
Lab
Would it not be difficult for members to hold the Government to account on that issue if they did not have a level of analysis from the Fiscal Commission or ...
John Swinney
SNP
My judgment is that there is no lack of financial information that circulates around in relation to the budget-setting process. Malcolm Chisholm and I are bo...
Annabel Goldie (West Scotland) (Con)
Con
I was struck by the cabinet secretary’s comment that if further borrowing powers emerge, he might be prepared to look at this issue again. Is that not to con...
John Swinney
SNP
At no stage did I use any of the language that Baroness Goldie used when she suggested the reasons why I do not support amendment 29. At no stage did I use t...
Jackie Baillie
Lab
I intend to press the amendment. The cabinet secretary has deployed some of those arguments previously, so let me take them in turn. First, he says that thi...
John Swinney
SNP
Will the member give way?
Jackie Baillie
Lab
I will give way in a second. Audit Scotland has published a number of reports on developing financial reporting in Scotland, and it recently wrote to the Fi...
John Swinney
SNP
I am grateful to Jackie Baillie for giving way. I wanted to intervene when Jackie Baillie set out Audit Scotland’s functions. Essentially, those functions a...
Jackie Baillie
Lab
I do not think that the amendment is unnecessary, or that it provides duplication. Nevertheless, I suggested to the cabinet secretary a way of ensuring that ...
John Mason
SNP
I make my intervention for the sake of completeness, seeing as Jackie Baillie mentioned me. I do not think that this issue is absolutely central. I felt ver...
Jackie Baillie
Lab
John Mason says that he struggles to understand what difference my amendment would make. I simply observe that, for two years, he has nevertheless supported ...
The Deputy Presiding Officer
Con
The question is, that amendment 29 be agreed to. Are we agreed? Members: No.
The Deputy Presiding Officer
Con
There will be a division. As this is the first division, I suspend the meeting for five minutes. 17:05 Meeting suspended. 17:10 On resuming—