Meeting of the Parliament 10 March 2016
I support and very much welcome amendment 1 and all the other amendments in the group.
Scottish Labour first argued in January 2015 that the Fiscal Commission should produce the official forecasts. We supported the Finance Committee’s view, which was reached after about two years of deliberation, that the Fiscal Commission should do the official forecasts. The committee’s report is one of the best that it has produced, and I commend those who were involved in it. In particular, I commend the convener of the committee, who said:
“we are strongly of the view that not only should the Scottish Fiscal Commission be independent, but it is vital that it is perceived to be independent. That is why we are calling for the Bill to be amended to strengthen the Commission’s role and to give it responsibility for producing the official forecasts.”
I think that we were all surprised when the bill was introduced. The cabinet secretary appeared to have ignored the Finance Committee and to have ignored his colleagues, and the bill was a pale imitation of what was required. The Government was intent on keeping control, and the Fiscal Commission was not to do the official forecasts.
At stage 1, the committee, with one exception, maintained its position and rejected the Government’s attempt to make the Fiscal Commission a less powerful body, so John Swinney was sent away tae think again. We were clear that in order to secure the Fiscal Commission’s independence and robustness in forecasts, it should be responsible for the official forecasts.
A few days later, that all changed. Scottish National Party members, including the convener of the committee, had somehow become converted. Some who are less generous than I might say that they had been nobbled, because they were suddenly convinced of John Swinney’s arguments. Was that a case of thumbscrews being applied, or did the convener of the committee believe that he had been wrong all along? I cannot ask Kenny Gibson that question, because he and Mark McDonald, who was one of the Finance Committee’s SNP members, are not in the chamber.
I am disappointed that it appeared that all that work was just being thrown away. However, having marched them up to the top of the hill, the cabinet secretary abandoned them there as he made a deal with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury that the Fiscal Commission would, contrary to his own view, do the official forecasting. Mr Swinney must be positively dizzy with all the about-turns that he is making, but I very much welcome them.
It is right that the Fiscal Commission should do the official forecasting. As a consequence, it will demonstrate its independence from Government. With new powers and new responsibilities coming to the Parliament, we must ensure that the institutions that we put in place are robust and transparent. John Swinney’s amendments will help us to do just that.