Meeting of the Parliament 14 January 2016
It sounded as though that was Mr Mason’s conversion to the commission doing the forecasting. If that is so, I very much welcome that.
I will look at the context today, because that is important. I heard on the radio this morning that, for the first time in more than a decade, oil is below $30 a barrel, with all the associated negative consequences for our economy, as demonstrated by the gross domestic product figures that were released yesterday. Growth is effectively flat. We are increasingly diverging from the UK, whose growth is better than ours.
Of course, only 18 months ago the Scottish Government’s Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin estimated oil at $113 a barrel. Perhaps we might not have foreseen what was to come, but an independent body that does our forecasting is likely to enjoy much more confidence than the Government has.
When we called for a Scottish OBR, the existing Fiscal Commission had a limited remit. It had no role in producing forecasts, it was underresourced and the finance secretary appointed all three members to serve on it—indeed, two served on the Council of Economic Advisers. However, one cannot be an adviser and provide independent scrutiny at the same time.
I am pleased to say that much of that position has changed and will change further. I welcome the bill to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission a statutory footing. The Finance Committee’s report gives a considered view on where the bill needs to be strengthened, and I would urge the Government to listen.
I will touch on two areas. First is the question of independence; second is the issue of who should do the forecasting.
Independence from Government is essential for the Fiscal Commission if it is to have any credibility, yet it will interact regularly with Government officials—