Committee
European and External Relations Committee 21 January 2016
21 Jan 2016 · S4 · European and External Relations Committee
Item of business
European Union Reform and Referendum
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh (Institute of International and European Affairs)
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Thank you very much. I join my colleagues in thanking you for inviting me. About a year ago, the Institute of International and European Affairs, which is based in Dublin, produced a book that some of you might have seen called “Britain and Europe: The Endgame—An Irish Perspective”. In case you have not read it, I will leave it behind after the meeting so that you can have a look at it. Why did we call it “the endgame”? We felt that it was now time for the UK’s relationship with the EU, which has been uneasy for a very long time now, to be regulated and fixed for the foreseeable future one way or the other—whether that means being in or out—and that there was a need for a bespoke solution that took account of the UK’s specifics. Looking ahead a little bit, we thought that the European Union might consist of four unions—if you want to call them that—and that the UK, if it were to remain within the European Union, could participate fully in three of them. What are the four unions? The first is obviously the single market. Whether it stays inside or leaves the EU, the UK wants to remain in the single market. Secondly, there is economic and monetary union. There is no doubt in my mind that, even if the United Kingdom remains within the EU, it will not join the euro for the foreseeable future. However, all the other member states—except Denmark—have a treaty commitment to join the euro at some stage or another. As the European Union evolves, we can imagine a situation in which all member states except perhaps the United Kingdom and Denmark had the euro, and we think that it would be possible to negotiate a system between the countries with the euro and those that do not have it that took sufficient account of the interests of the various member states. In other words, we think that it is possible to find a solution to the particular issue that Mr Cameron raised in his negotiation about the relationship between the ins and the outs. The third area where we thought there might be a union—in fact, we are moving quite rapidly towards it—is the capital markets. I recently visited the office of the European commissioner in charge of that portfolio—who is, in fact, an Englishman and the UK European commissioner—and I know that he is moving ahead very rapidly on such a union. Lastly, we thought that the area of security was another area where there could be an albeit looser union that took account of factors such as energy security and dealt with the issue of immigration into the European Union from outwith it. In short, therefore, our book envisages the EU having at some point in the future more or less four interconnected unions, with the United Kingdom participating fully in at least three of them and a solution being found for the fourth one that would be fair to both the United Kingdom and the other members of the European Union. We then looked at the question of Brexit. I should tell you, by the way, that the book argues very strongly that it is in the interests of the United Kingdom, Europe and, certainly, of my country for the United Kingdom to remain in the European Union. However, we looked at what might happen should the UK exit by considering the Norwegian solution, the Swiss solution and the Turkish solution, and we felt that none of those provided answers to the UK Government’s questions about its position within the EU. Jean-Claude Piris, the formal legal counsel for the European Council and the Commission, has just produced a short but interesting paper for the Centre for European Reform. I presume that members have seen it, but if you have not, I strongly recommend it to you, because it looks at the alternatives that might be available to the UK if there were to be a Brexit. Interestingly, his conclusions, which are set out in much greater detail than those in our book, are exactly the same as ours. He does not think that anything outside the EU would provide the UK with answers to the problems that it has inside it.
In the same item of business
The Convener
SNP
We move swiftly on to our first agenda item, which is the continuation of our inquiry into European Union reform and the EU referendum. Today we are looking ...
Niels Engelschiøn (Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
First of all, thank you very much for inviting us to Edinburgh. We are very pleased to be here. It is the first time for me, and it is a great pleasure to se...
Professor Dr Andreas Auer (Universities of Zurich and Geneva)
I, too, thank the committee very much for inviting me to this beautiful city so that I can inform members about the relationship between Switzerland and the ...
The Convener
SNP
Thank you very much indeed. Dáithí, do you want to go next?
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh (Institute of International and European Affairs)
Thank you very much. I join my colleagues in thanking you for inviting me. About a year ago, the Institute of International and European Affairs, which is b...
The Convener
SNP
Thank you very much. I invite questions from members.
Jamie McGrigor (Highlands and Islands) (Con)
Con
I should say at the outset that I am not a Eurosceptic. I agree with the idea that the UK should stay in the EU. I find it interesting that, in Norway, some...
The Convener
SNP
Who is that question for?
Jamie McGrigor
Con
It is for the Norwegian witnesses primarily, but it is also for the Swiss representative.
Niels Engelschiøn
It is not entirely correct to say that the political establishment in Norway is pro-EU, because several parties in Parliament are against Norwegian membershi...
Jamie McGrigor
Con
What is putting the population off Norway’s becoming a full member of the EU instead of its being, in a way, a member without having the ability to influence...
Niels Engelschiøn
I have mentioned fisheries, agriculture and the sovereignty issue. There is no precise answer—this is just speculation—but the Norwegian economy and the work...
Jamie McGrigor
Con
Is there nothing that you can put your finger on and say, “They don’t like that”?
Niels Engelschiøn
No, it is difficult to say. However, given the difficult economic situation that many European countries—particularly those in the eurozone—have faced since ...
Jamie McGrigor
Con
Do you think that Norwegians are particularly against joining the euro?
Niels Engelschiøn
It is about the whole thing. Eighty per cent of Norwegians would say no to EU membership because they know what they have and they do not know what membershi...
The Convener
SNP
Do you want to put the same question to Professor Auer?
Jamie McGrigor
Con
Yes, please. I do not want to hog the discussion, but I would like to hear the Swiss perspective.
Professor Auer
I would never consider the Swiss situation as being a solution for anyone—not even for Switzerland, which is currently in a very difficult position. Let me e...
Jamie McGrigor
Con
Thank you.
The Convener
SNP
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh, you have done some analysis of the other models. You mentioned both the Swiss and Norwegian models, but you also mentioned the Turkish mo...
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh
Throughout the European Union, there is an increasing general dissatisfaction with Brussels. Within all our populations, there is a feeling that the politica...
Jamie McGrigor
Con
Was monetary union a bridge too far?
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh
No. The regulation of the monetary union was there without a bridge, because the individual treasuries and finance ministries were not prepared to give up th...
Willie Coffey (Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley) (SNP)
SNP
I will pick up Mr O’Ceallaigh’s point about the four unions. You said that the Norwegian, Swiss and Turkish models would not lend themselves to being a UK so...
Dáithí O’Ceallaigh
I honestly think that, were the UK negotiating on its own, its position would be much weaker than it would be were the UK to remain negotiating on the inside...
Willie Coffey
SNP
Partially. I would love to ask Professor Auer for his view. Professor, you have already said that the Swiss relationship is not a particularly good one for ...
Professor Auer
I am sorry, but I did not understand the question.
Willie Coffey
SNP
You have said that the arrangement that Switzerland has is not a particularly good one. What relationship do you think that the UK would have with the EU if ...
Professor Auer
I am sorry, but that is a very difficult question for me to answer. I am convinced that, because it is a strong and important country, the UK could negotiate...