Meeting of the Parliament 14 January 2016
Yes—but Audit Scotland’s function is somewhat different. It does not forecast; it scrutinises in retrospect, which is quite different.
The Finance Committee’s report is useful in that it seeks clarity on the functions of scrutiny through a memorandum of understanding. Some of the issues, such as agreement to the methodology, might be clarified by that. There can be differences between methodologies because econometrics is not a precise science. Other issues include assessment of the forecasting methods, testing of the suggested numbers and propositions, commentary on initial assumptions and forecasts, and assessment of the reasonableness of the forecasts and any revised forecasts. Even that duplication does not give me the comfort that I would like, because “reasonableness” is a fairly low threshold, as a Conservative colleague indicated.
One of the biggest problems that we have had throughout my time in Parliament has been that we have looked only one year ahead; there has been a lack of looking forward and of long-term strategies. For example, although we have a long-term strategy for climate change, the Government has, for one reason or another, missed the annual targets. I accept that has not been entirely its fault. The Scottish Fiscal Commission should look not just at the Government’s forecasts for its one-year budgets; it should insist on long-term scrutiny. How will things be made up over the long term?
It is the same with health; as Audit Scotland has told us, our health budgets have all been short term. We need to think about the long-term prospects. We hold our health boards to account only for one-year periods, with a bit of brokerage. That does not serve us well as a country, so we need to take a much longer perspective. If the Fiscal Commission’s independence is clear and is not jeopardised by its having an advisory role, it will be very effective.
The bill is welcome, although some issues could be addressed. I hope that at stage 2 the Finance Committee continues the excellent work that it has done by lodging amendments that will at least challenge the Government to look closely at the alternatives at stage 3, in order to ensure the independence of this important commission.
16:17