Meeting of the Parliament 14 January 2016
No, I will not. I have only four minutes.
The OBR made a detailed projection of economic performance parameters, including the oil and gas outlook, as the basis for the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s autumn statement. That was all changed within seven weeks and the UK gross domestic product forecast was changed downwards. The UK balance of payments was wrong, as was the forecast of UK borrowing. All that lends credence to what Alistair Darling said in 2010 about the OBR being a wing of the Tory party. Those forecasts might have had a significant impact on the Scottish fiscal and economic outlook; such forecasts destroy confidence.
Let us consider the statement in the OBR’s “Economic and fiscal outlook—November 2015”. It said:
“We published a methodology note in March 2012 which described how we planned to forecast these Scottish tax receipts ... In particular, the macroeconomic data that we would need to produce a Scottish macroeconomic forecast and economic determinants were generally not available at a Scottish level ... That remains the case.”
The OBR is producing a forecast that impacts on Scotland. It continues:
“We are therefore not able to produce a Scottish macroeconomic forecast to drive the Scottish tax forecast.”
That was November 2015—two months ago—and it is still the case.
Therein lies the reason for having a commission that is independent of Government, that is qualified, experienced and robust, and is underpinned by a clearly defined fiscal process and framework. The German Länder can do it, the Belgian High Council of Finance can do it and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council can do it. So can we.
Independent scrutiny, forecasting, fiscal projections, and setting the fiscal rules are all key foundations of what will be a strong Scottish economy.
16:13