Meeting of the Parliament 11 December 2013
The Conservative Party motion invites us today to welcome last week’s autumn statement. As the Conservative Party will know, I am always generous in my praise for others in the chamber when they do sensible and welcome things. There are elements of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s statement last week that I welcome. I welcome what he said on fuel duty. I have welcomed the fact that he has begun to temper the significant and swingeing reductions in capital expenditure that have been applied, although a 26 per cent reduction in capital expenditure rather than a 33 per cent reduction is still a pretty significant blow to the Scottish economy.
It is important at the outset to discuss the issues of economic performance that Mr Brown has put before Parliament today. I think that I would be accepted as an individual who tries to talk about improvements in economic performance that have been made. I did so in the budget statement back in September, when I set out the fact that we were experiencing higher growth, lower unemployment, higher employment and lower economic inactivity in Scotland. All those things remain true today. On all those indicators, we are in a stronger position than the rest of the United Kingdom. There is certainly a more positive outlook in relation to economic performance.
However, we have to look at that in its true and proper context. Mr Brown said that the independent OBR had set out its forecast. In 2010, the OBR forecast that the economy would be 5.9 per cent larger than it is now projecting it to be. Back in 2010, the OBR said that the economy would recover faster and that there would be more growth in the economy—5.9 per cent more growth—than has been delivered. If we are going to rely heavily on the estimates, let us rely heavily on all the information that is put out.