Hansard

There is an optimist. I like optimism in politicians; it is very important.The methods that were used by those who carried out the work under Robert Rae's direction were, to some extent, unusual for this type of report, but the outcomes were very helpful and positive. The wider community was involved in a series of consultations and events. For example, a theatrical event was held at which life was played out in two scenes that were each set in a different time period—now and in 25 years—and the audience and participants were then able to comment directly on what kind of changes they thought would be coming down the line and what they would like to see happen. The methods behind the report have therefore been very inventive in provoking the interest of the population of Scotland and of various representative groups.The way in which the report uses scenarios was new to some of us, but it is very helpful. The most important point about scenarios is that they are not predictions. They are pictures of what might be. If someone thinks that they are unrealistic or they do not like them, that is the point. People are being asked what they think the shape of Scottish society will be in 25 years. What would they like to see? What can they see? How do we get from here to there? What kind of changes are needed in the way in which we operate?It is difficult to overstate the kind of change that our society is going through. It is a radical change and it is not simply that there are specific tasks that some do now that they will not be there to do in future, but rather that the whole culture of our society has to shift. This is the Enterprise and Culture Committee, which is interesting. The way in which people think across the generations has to be transformed because it is only if that happens that we will begin to engage positively with the problems and issues that confront society.However, it is easy to be overdramatic, which is why we reject the word "crisis". It will only become a crisis if we do not do any thinking and discussing, and certainly if we do not act. That would be a major mistake and this report will have failed if you are not provoked to think, discuss and act. Change happens one day at a time, which is why it is easy to put it off until tomorrow, so it is important to confront the issues now.I will point the committee to two different places in the report. The box on page 11 quantifies the issues that most affect the Enterprise and Culture Committee. Members will see that the number of people of working age is projected to fall. Of course, the population of Scotland will at best stay even and may fall, which is not true of the rest of the United Kingdom. We are in a different situation; it is important that we take a realistic look at the numbers. If, as we all hope, the Scottish economy continues to make progress, our researchers estimate that 50,000 new job opportunities will arise. That means that an additional 50,000 people will be required to carry out some of the functions of society. In a declining population, and one that is aging, that will act as a double whammy against the kind of growth that all of us are looking and hoping for.The additional point that is made in the box on page 11 is that we also have to consider the normal turnover in jobs—not only the jobs that are vacated through retirement and so on but the additional jobs that are coming into the Scottish economy. A triangulation of forces is at work. At the same time as the number of people who are normally thought of as being in the working age group is declining, the number of opportunities that we want to see filled is increasing. The questions on which Scotland, as a community, should focus are what that will do for our gross domestic product and, lying behind that question, what it will do for our quality of life. As I said, some of the stark numbers can be seen in the box on page 11.On pages 4 and 5, we have set out a good summary of many of the issues that we confronted and which we want the committee to consider. For example, if we are to prepare for the future, what sorts of preparation should we undertake and what are the areas on which more thought, discussion and, in the end, action are required? The three main areas that we found are finance, employment and intergenerational well-being, the last of which includes the health, fitness and quality of life of the individual. Those are areas that can too easily be left aside. We have raised a number of questions that we pose for starters, so to speak—we know that they will not be the only ones. They are the questions that we would like folk to confront and we will play our part in that process.On the second area, employment, a question that we posed is how we are to deal with the need for an increased number of people with skills. The third area, intergenerational well-being, relates to the culture change that I spoke about earlier. The question that we have posed in this regard is how to persuade young and old people alike that we are a single community in which, if well-being and quality of life are to be maintained, people will need to live interdependently. That is also the case if we are to avoid crisis and the nasty scenario that some are happy to paint of one group in the community—enlarged in number—living off a smaller and decreasing group of people.A number of questions are raised on pages 4 and 5. Although each of us could take a shot at answering some of them, the point that we tried to make is that we are not yet at the stage of producing a blueprint in which, having answered all the questions, we can set out everything that we should do tomorrow and the problem will be solved. The issues will change and develop, which means that questions that we have hardly even thought about will come out of the woodwork.We think that all our questions bear down on the main issues of how to finance the needs of the population, individually and as a whole; what shape and pattern we envisage for employment in future—that is what we majored on to an extent—and how we change the culture. I suspect that many of my colleagues around the table will have important things to say about employment and about how we get from here to there in that respect. Finally, in the Scottish tradition of apportioning some blame if necessary, we listed some of the key organisations that have a part to play in all this. We included ourselves in the list.I think that that is enough from me by way of summary. I am happy to continue the debate in open session.