Meeting of the Parliament 18 March 2026 [Draft]
It is important to remember that Scotland is not alone in wrestling with a very high prison population. Between October 2023 and September 2025, the previous and current United Kingdom Governments released more than 62,000 prisoners early. I say that not for a minute to demur from my responsibilities, but merely to make the point that any suggestion that others, if they were in my place, would be making radically different decisions in the current circumstances is, quite simply, not credible.
The rise in the prison population is driven by an increase in long-term prisoners who are serving long-term sentences. There is, of course, a long-term shift away from very short-term sentences. The reality is that there is no single or quick solution to address the rise in the prison population, and we must continue to pursue a range of measures across our justice system. In response to the immediate need for further action, the regulations will change from 40 to 30 per cent the proportion of the custodial sentences that some short-term prisoners are required to serve before they are automatically released.
The change is necessary to alleviate the persistent pressure on our dedicated prison staff, whom I remain grateful to for the vital work that they carry out each and every day. I have not reached this decision lightly. However, I believe that the change is proportionate to the risks that we face. The proposed exclusions for those who are serving sexual and domestic abuse offences strike the right balance between recognising the concerns of victims while supporting a sustained—not temporary—reduction in the rise in the short-term prisoner population against persistent increases overall. The change could deliver a sustained reduction of between 239 and 312 individuals.
The governor’s veto does not exist in the normal release process, and it never has. What the regulations will do, if approved, is to alter the standard point of release for some short-term prisoners.
The action that the Government has taken has had a positive impact. Our modelling indicates that the prison population today would be around 260 to 390 prisoners higher without the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, and a further 130 to 230 prisoners higher without the most recent emergency release. That would mean a population of between nearly 8,800 or in excess of 9,000 if we had not taken the difficult decisions to alleviate pressure on the prison system.
This action has to complement other steps that we have taken. We have optimised the existing capacity in the estate by 400 additional spaces compared with 2024; we have provided the Scottish Prison Service with capital funding to construct two new prisons; and we are, of course, increasing investment in community justice, which is far more effective than short-term sentences.
I will endeavour to stick to my time, so that I do not incur your wrath, Presiding Officer. I will briefly say that we must move forward together and consider the sentencing and penal policy commission recommendations while recognising that prison will always be for those who pose the greatest harm.
We can all critique the past and debate the future—we can and must do that—but the decision for Parliament tonight is about what we do now to protect the health, safety and wellbeing of those who live and work in our prisons. Right now, doing nothing is not an option; we must act tonight.