Economy and Fair Work Committee 26 June 2025
Historically, UK market registrations were between 2,500 and 3,000 buses per annum. Before the move to low-emission vehicles only, the competitive landscape was very different. During the pandemic, registration numbers went as low as 1,100 to 1,200 buses. As context for that, we delivered 1,400 buses to the market in 2024, and we have an annual capacity across our factories of 1,600 buses.
We expected 2025 to be a difficult year, because of the way in which the funding rounds for zero-emission buses had played out. We knew that it would be a tougher year than 2024, and it has indeed become harder to remain a financially viable and sustainable business in 2025. Even if we assume that the market stays at around 3,000 buses and demand continues to be healthy, because of commitments to decarbonisation and having zero-emission fleets by 2030, 2035 or whenever, it is still the case that, if our regular market demand is now smaller—say, 30-something per cent rather than the 50 or 60 per cent that it was historically—we cannot afford to sustain two factories. It comes back to the size of the business, our ability to operate in one factory rather than two and staying financially viable.