Committee
Public Audit and Post-legislative Scrutiny Committee 18 March 2021
18 Mar 2021 · S5 · Public Audit and Post-legislative Scrutiny Committee
Item of business
Covid-19 (Tracking the Implications for Scotland’s Public Finances)
Andrew Watson (Scottish Government)
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I am happy to start on that question. I think that it relates to the current financial year but, as Liz Ditchburn said, we are very much looking ahead to the 2021-22 financial year and beyond that. I have a couple of observations. First, we have built into the 2021-22 budget, which the Parliament has just agreed, about £3.6 billion of Covid consequentials. The money has been spread across portfolios, notably in the areas of health, business support and transport, but it has also been spread more generally. The combination of that and an overall increase in our core funding means that we have increased the majority of key budgets for next year, so that is quite a strong position to start from. However, as the committee will be aware, there is a significant difference between the level of Covid funding in the budget this year and the level of Covid funding in the budget next year. Therefore, although we believe that we have allocated as best we can, we recognise that there will be pressures across public services. The Scottish Government has made representations to the UK Government on the overall level of grant funding that might be available next year but, at the moment, we have allocated the budget that is available to us. Going forward, one of the key points will be the way in which we mobilise all our resources in response to Covid. In the current financial year, there has been a focus on specific Covid funding, whereas the challenge for us in future will be about how all our programmes contribute to the recovery. I point to our medium-term financial strategy. Despite the high degree of uncertainty that faces us, the Scottish Government decided that we should set out some medium-term financial planning alongside the budget. The committee recently took evidence on our infrastructure investment pipeline, on which we have set out a five-year plan. In the medium-term financial strategy, we set out the fiscal outlook for Scotland and a run of numbers on the budget position. We are trying to set out the overall framework as best we can. As Ms Forbes observed during the budget process, our budgets might change. We are therefore working closely with delivery partners and portfolios to explore the costs that might emerge in the year ahead. However, the further out the forecasts go, the more uncertainty there is on precisely what will need to be spent. The possibility of further changes happening in the budget during 2021-22 is therefore fairly high, so we need to remain flexible and nimble. I hope that that answers the question.
In the same item of business
The Convener
Lab
Under agenda item 3, the committee will take evidence on tracking the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for Scotland’s public finances. I welcome our wit...
Colin Beattie
SNP
I have one or two questions about contingency planning. I hope that we will be coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic in the near future. Managing our way out o...
The Convener
Lab
Can Liz Ditchburn answer that question or tell us who is best placed to answer it?
Liz Ditchburn (Scottish Government)
Yes. The question is very much about money, so it would be good to hear from Andrew Watson on how we are building in medium-term financial planning in order ...
Andrew Watson (Scottish Government)
I am happy to start on that question. I think that it relates to the current financial year but, as Liz Ditchburn said, we are very much looking ahead to the...
Colin Beattie
SNP
It does to an extent, but I am still a little unclear as to what the actual financial contingency planning process is. You mentioned one or two areas, but wh...
Andrew Watson
I am happy to start on that, but I might bring in my colleagues. Richard McCallum might want to comment on how the health service is preparing for some of th...
Richard McCallum (Scottish Government)
From a health portfolio perspective, we are looking at the issue through three lenses. First, there is the underlying position that health boards and integr...
Colin Beattie
SNP
Have you broken down the financial risk and so forth for each major component area in the budget?
Richard McCallum
We have done that for health. We have looked at areas such as social care, the vaccination programme, test and protect, the NHS and the recovery that will be...
Andrew Watson
We have a detailed process of monthly forecasting across Scottish Government budgets. Clearly, the emerging impacts of Covid will be part of that. To give so...
Liz Ditchburn
I was thinking that, in the way that Richard McCallum talked about health, I would offer the example of how we think about the issue with respect to the econ...
Colin Beattie
SNP
Do you take into consideration the impact of different funding and spending scenarios on the national performance framework outcomes?
Liz Ditchburn
Absolutely—that is one of the things that is always being tracked. Andrew Watson might want to give more detail about how that falls into longer-term budgeti...
Andrew Watson
I was going to make a similar point to the one that Liz Ditchburn made about the emerging evidence of the unequal impact of Covid on society and the outcomes...
Colin Beattie
SNP
Thank you. Back to you, convener.
The Convener
Lab
Alex Neil, please. Oh—he is not there. Graham Simpson, please.
Graham Simpson
Con
Right, I will step into Alex’s shoes. I will move in a slightly different direction and ask about the framework for investment in private companies. As you w...
Liz Ditchburn
I will come to all the points that Mr Simpson raised but, by way of context, it is important to say that there are a lot things that we do in investing in th...
Graham Simpson
Con
My question was, “Do you have a set of principles?” I think that you are saying that the answer is yes, but we have not seen them. Are they going to be publi...
Liz Ditchburn
They will be integrated into the SPFM. We are finalising the process of developing them, but I can talk to you in broad-brush terms about what they are. I do...
The Convener
Lab
Graham, does that answer your question?
Graham Simpson
Con
I guess so. I suppose that it is encouraging that that is being worked on, so I will wait to see the final details. My final question is related to that. Hav...
Liz Ditchburn
Over the course of the pandemic, we have been doing work with Scottish Enterprise, which also informed some of the work on the pivotal enterprise resilience ...
Bill Bowman
Con
I want to move on to the subject of whole public sector accounts. I hope that somebody is familiar with that and can give us an answer. At the end of session...
Jackie McAllister (Scottish Government)
I will take that question. The permanent secretary wrote to the committee on 19 February to reiterate our commitment to whole public sector accounts—we are s...
Bill Bowman
Con
I thank you for that. However, the situation has been going on since 2015. I appreciate that, if someone is a chief financial officer and someone else comes ...
Jackie McAllister
Clearly, an important factor is that the information is timely. We would need to look at the value of producing information for years that are quite some dis...
Bill Bowman
Con
That does not give me much comfort, to be honest, but I do not put that down to you. The Auditor General has also made the point that, given that the Covid ...
Jackie McAllister
Thank you for that comment. I will definitely pick that up with Audit Scotland and explore it further. Although it would be helpful if the whole public sect...