Hansard

Last week, I updated Parliament on the Scottish Government’s strategic framework. When I update Parliament next week, I hope to be able to confirm some changes to the level 4 restrictions. Between now and then, and in the light of the positive data that I will report on today, we will consider whether it might be possible to accelerate exit from lockdown in any way—consistent, of course, with the care and caution that we know continue to be necessary.

Later today, the public health minister will support resumption of competitive football in Scottish Professional Football League’s leagues 1 and 2, the Scottish Women’s Premier League’s league 1 and, for the purposes of playing Scottish cup ties, for certain Scottish Highland Football League teams. I hope that that news will be welcomed by football fans across the country.

However, the focus of my statement today is education. In particular, I will update Parliament on plans to get all children back to school full time as soon as possible.

First, however, I will give a brief summary of today’s statistics. The total number of positive cases that were reported yesterday was 542, which was 4.4 per cent of the tests that were carried out. The total number of cases is now 203,012; 784 people are in hospital, which is 40 fewer than yesterday; and 71 people are in intensive care, which is the same number as yesterday. I am sorry to say, however, that in the past 24 hours a further 33 deaths have been registered, and the total number of deaths under the daily measurement is now 7,164. Again, I send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.

Yesterday, we marked the anniversary of the first case of Covid being confirmed in Scotland. The Scottish Government is currently talking to health charities and family organisations about how we intend to remember all those who have lost their lives, and to mark the many sacrifices that people have made. We intend to say more about that soon.

I will now give a short update on the vaccination programme. As at 8.30 this morning, 1,634,361 people in Scotland had received a first dose of the vaccine, which is an increase of 22,783 since yesterday. There is good and increasing evidence that vaccination is already reducing the number of deaths, particularly in care homes. In time, as a growing proportion of the population gains protection through vaccination, it should also start to have an impact on hospitalisations and on transmission rates.

There was further positive news yesterday with the report from Public Health England that a first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine reduces the chance of needing hospital treatment by more than 80 per cent. That confirms research that was published last week in Scotland by the University of Edinburgh.

We remain on course to offer a first dose to everyone over 50, all unpaid carers and all adults with an underlying health condition by mid-April. We understand that we might face some supply issues next week, which could affect appointments, but we are working hard to avoid that. I stress that such issues will not affect the mid-April target.

In addition to the progress on vaccination, we are making good progress in suppressing the virus. I said last week that the decline in case numbers had appeared to slow down and that that was a concern. However, I am pleased to report this week that more recent data has been much more encouraging, and strongly suggests that case numbers are still declining.

This time last week, we were recording an average of 815 new cases a day. That has now fallen to 657 new cases a day on average, which is the lowest level since the first week of October last year. The average test positivity rate has also fallen and is now below 5 per cent. Hospital admissions are also falling. In the first half of January, more than 1,000 Covid patients a week were being admitted to hospital. In the week to 23 February, that number had fallen to 468. The number of people in intensive care has also continued to decline.

The sacrifices that everyone is making are undoubtedly having an impact. Collectively, we are suppressing the virus and, as a result, lives are being saved. There is more reason to be optimistic now than perhaps there has been at any time since early autumn last year. That said, we know that we need to take care to avoid sending progress into reverse: 657 new cases a day might be the lowest level for five months, but it is still 13 times higher than the numbers that were being recorded in mid-August. The reduction in hospital admissions is very encouraging, but hundreds of people every week are still falling seriously ill.

We know that the new variant, which now accounts for more than 85 per cent of new cases, is highly infectious. We were reminded over the weekend of the significant risk that we face of other new variants—such as the P1 Brazilian variant—being imported into the country.

The news—on vaccines and on suppression—is overwhelmingly positive, but we must be sensible, which can be harder to do when things appear to be going in the right direction. We must continue to be sensible in the decisions that we take over the next few weeks if we want to make sure that we keep going in the right direction. That provides context for the decisions that we have taken this week, which Cabinet has confirmed this morning, about our next steps in enabling children to return to school. Those decisions follow consultation with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities and local authorities, discussions with the Covid-19 education recovery group, and scientific advice from the advisory sub-group on education and children’s issues. That advice will be published tomorrow.

Children in primaries 1 to 3 are already back at school full time. We continue to monitor the impacts of that, although it is too early to be certain of them. Some secondary school students have returned to take part in essential practical work for national qualifications, and childcare and early education premises are also now open for children below school age.

The next phase of reopening education will take place on 15 March. I confirm that, from that date—15 March—unless new evidence or new circumstances force us to reconsider, which of course we hope will not be the case, all children in primaries 4 to 7 will go back to school full time. All primary school children will also be able to return to regulated childcare, including after-school and breakfast clubs.

We will also take the next steps in a phased return to secondary school from 15 March, with a clear expectation that all secondary school pupils will be back in school full time following the Easter holidays. However, it is intended that all secondary school pupils will return to spend some time in school from 15 March until the Easter break.

Students in the senior phase of secondary school—years 4 to 6—who are taking national qualifications will have priority for face-to-face lessons in school. That will ensure that they can have their hard work fairly recognised with qualifications under the alternative certification model.

However, although years 4 to 6 may have priority, we expect that all children in secondary school will receive some in-school education each week until the Easter break and will then return full time following that. That will allow pupils to get used to being back in school and to start seeing friends again. I am sure that everyone would agree that that is important for the wellbeing of young people, as well as for education.

Because there will be a blended-learning model, before Easter we will also continue to ensure that remote learning is of the highest standard possible. Reports from Education Scotland inspectors have shown that delivery of remote learning improved greatly between the first and second lockdowns. I am immensely grateful to all the teachers and other education professionals who have done so much to build on the experience of the first lockdown. We will work with Education Scotland to ensure that enhanced online resources continue to be available over the coming month, and we will work with local authorities to support young people’s wellbeing in other ways, for example by providing more opportunities for outdoor learning.

Over the next few days, Education Scotland will publish guidance for local authorities on the phased return, and local authorities will have flexibility in how they implement the phased return to allow them to take account of local factors in deciding how to make the return as safe as possible. However, we want to ensure that local authorities are able to maximise the amount of time that secondary school pupils can safely spend in school in the period up to the Easter holidays.

Obviously, we recognise that the safety of staff and children must continue to be a key priority. All local authorities will, therefore, at least until the Easter break—this is one of the limitations—continue to observe the current requirement for 2m physical distancing in secondary schools. When secondary schools return, face coverings will need to be worn at all times.

The advisory sub-group on education and children’s issues has noted the continuing importance of ventilation. We have provided local authorities with £375 million of education recovery funding to date, and many councils are using some of that funding to monitor and improve ventilation in schools.

In addition, we will continue to offer twice-weekly lateral flow testing for all school staff in primary, secondary and special schools, and all secondary school pupils in years 4, 5 and 6. I encourage use of the tests by as many staff and senior phase pupils as possible when they return. It is another important way to ensure that schools remain as safe as possible.

The final point that I want to make on schools is simply to say thank you—first to all school leadership teams and all school staff, including, of course, all teachers, for everything that that has been done to support our children and young people in the past few months. I know that everyone is looking forward to having children back in the classroom as soon as possible.

I also want to thank parents across the country. I can only imagine how difficult all this disruption continues to be, but I hope and I believe that the end of it is now firmly in sight.

I offer my thanks to children and young people, too. I know how hard it must be to be separated from friends and teachers, but you have all responded magnificently to all the difficulties of the past year. I hope that you are looking forward to getting back to school later this month, and I hope that you will start to feel life becoming much more normal very soon.

The phased approach to school return can be frustrating, I know, but it is necessary and it is firmly based on the expert advice that we have received. It is the best and the most sustainable and enduring way to get as many children as possible back to school, as safely as possible.

There is one further issue that I want to highlight briefly. I confirm that we are clarifying guidance on an issue that is directly relevant to parents of newborn children. There are currently a number of essential purposes, such as essential care, that enable us to go into someone else’s house. We are amending guidance on that today to make it clear that essential purposes include support for the welfare and wellbeing of parents of children who are under the age of one. I hope that that gives clarity and will enable vital support for parents of very young children.

As we come out of this lockdown—which is, I hope, the last lockdown—we are prioritising, as we said we would, the education and wellbeing of our children. In addition, although we remain cautious—as we have to be, in the face of a dangerous and highly infectious virus—I hope that people will take heart from the data that I have reported. It shows real, significant and sustained progress in getting the virus back under control.

Next week, I hope to confirm to Parliament the other changes to the level 4 restrictions that will take effect from 15 March. The week after that, I am scheduled to set out a firmer timetable for the period after 26 April. As I said at the outset of this statement, and as I said last week, we will consider between now and then whether the data allows us to bring forward any relaxation of the rules. I have always said that if we can go further and faster, we will not hesitate to do so. All of us want to move on as quickly as possible and, as a priority, to see friends and family again. That will be very much the focus of our considerations over the next week; I hope that the day for that is now not too far away.

To make sure that we do not see a reverse in our progress that would put that in jeopardy, it is really important that, for now, we all abide by the lockdown rules, so please continue to stick to their letter and their spirit. Stay at home except for essential purposes. Do not meet people from other households indoors. Follow the FACTS advice when you are out and about. Work from home if you can, and if you are an employer, please continue to support your employees to do that.

If we do all that, we can and will make it easier for children to return to school and for us all to return to more normality soon. We will protect ourselves, our communities and our national health service, and we will keep the virus under control while vaccinations do their work. For the moment, please continue to stick with it, stick together and stay at home.