Committee
COVID-19 Committee 14 January 2021
14 Jan 2021 · S5 · COVID-19 Committee
Item of business
Subordinate Legislation
Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Amendment (No 11) Regulations 2021 (SSI 2021/3)
Professor Jason Leitch (Scottish Government)
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Thank you for having me back again, convener. “Glimmer” would be as far as I would go. The last time that we spoke a week ago, we were talking of a doubling time of two weeks. Let us say—these numbers are not accurate—that we had gone from about 750 to 1,500 cases in two weeks. That would suggest that we would be at 3,000 cases within another two weeks. The doubling time is an important indicator of the rate of acceleration of a pandemic anywhere in the world. That doubling has not happened. It would appear that, in the main, the boxing day restrictions, which we are now seeing in the numbers, have led to cases stabilising at around 1,700, give or take 200 in either direction. The number appears not to be falling—it appears to be a little stuck—but it is not accelerating, so it is correct to use the word “glimmers”. I would balance that by saying that we should remember that those 1,700 positive cases have translated into 107 intensive care admissions in the past week. The hospital and ICU admissions have not yet slowed, because we are hardwiring in prevalence and positive cases. However, I would say yes, I think that there is some hope that the acceleration has slowed.
In the same item of business
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Professor Jason Leitch (Scottish Government)
Thank you for having me back again, convener. “Glimmer” would be as far as I would go. The last time that we spoke a week ago, we were talking of a doubling ...
The Convener
Con
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The Convener
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Lab
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SNP
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David Stewart
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The Convener
Con
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John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston) (SNP)
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Michael Russell
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The Convener
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John Mason has a follow-up question.
John Mason
SNP
Will the carrier do the checking at the departure airport, just as it checks a passport?
Professor Leitch
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John Mason
SNP
Thank you.
Michael Russell
SNP
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The Convener
Con
Our next set of questions comes from Mark Ruskell.