Meeting of the Parliament 28 February 2018
My judgment is that both are important, as I think that Mr Swinney agrees, but primarily this is about improved educational outcomes for children and addressing inequality. However, Audit Scotland makes clear that some decisions about how the policy is delivered have been based not on that view but on the view that it is about making it possible for parents to work.
The figures appear to suggest that most three and four-year-olds access funded hours, but Audit Scotland is clear that the effect of multiple registration makes those figures highly unreliable. Further, as Mr Johnson indicated a moment ago, only half of eligible two-year-olds are registered. The purpose of the policy is apparently to allow parents to work, but most parents tell Audit Scotland that the 600 hours has had a limited impact on their ability to work—I think that the minister acknowledged that in responding a moment ago to an intervention. That certainly reflects the research that the fair funding for our kids campaign has done, with parents repeatedly raising the issue of families being unable to access their entitlement because of inflexibility.
However, the Audit Scotland report saves its greatest concerns for the implementation of the new promise of 1,140 hours. The report identifies significant challenges and major risks, and points out that detailed planning should have started earlier than it did and that, even when it did start, councils were asked to plan in the absence of clear information that they needed from the Scottish Government. The report provides chapter and verse on risks around finance, infrastructure and workforce. On finance, as we have already heard, by 2021 there will be a £160 million black hole between the annual running costs estimated by councils and the finances promised so far by the Government. The story is the same for infrastructure but largely worse, with councils planning to spend £747 million on new accommodation and buildings but the Scottish Government currently proposing, indicatively at any rate, to provide not much more than half of that requirement.
However, the biggest challenges lie with the workforce. Councils estimate that they will need 12,000 full-time equivalent additional staff to deliver the policy, which is a 128 per cent increase. The truth is that the Scottish Government does not know where those staff are coming from. At First Minister’s question time last week, the First Minister reeled off what she said was her plan to deliver increased numbers of apprenticeships and graduate places, and we heard the minister repeat that plan today. However, the trouble is that those measures are right here in the Audit Scotland report but Audit Scotland simply concludes that they will provide only a very small number of the additional places needed—it is not enough. To be honest, the Scottish Government is to workforce planning what Eddie the Eagle is to ski jumping.
When the self-same First Minister was health secretary, she had a plan for the nursing workforce, did she not? What do we have now? We have a fourfold increase in unfilled nursing posts. In her top priority of education, she has managed the incredible outcome of losing 3,500 teacher posts and still creating a shortage of teachers and hundreds of unfilled vacancies. There is no rational reason or credible evidence to allow us to believe that the Scottish Government can find and train 12,000 early years workers to deliver its policy. That is what Audit Scotland tells us in the report in its always polite, courteous and understated way when it states:
“it is difficult to see how all the challenges can be overcome in the time available.”
The minister might be confident that he is going to reach agreement and resolve all the challenges, and that it is all going to be fine. However, Audit Scotland is telling him that it does not believe him. There is not enough revenue funding, not enough capital funding, not enough staff and not enough leadership from the Scottish Government to deliver its flagship policy. That is the wake-up call that the report delivers.