Meeting of the Parliament 28 June 2016
I voted remain on Thursday because I believed that it was in the best interests of Scotland and the UK to do so. I felt a huge sadness on Friday morning as I saw the results come in. The biggest reason for that is that we have lost the opportunity to stop talking about constitutional politics and, instead, focus on the issues that matter here and now. Many of them are issues of life and death: the debate comes as new figures show that the expected standard in cancer treatment has not been achieved for more than three years.
Let us not underestimate what happened on Thursday. It is a seismic event for the UK and the EU. Millions of people throughout the United Kingdom are deeply disappointed with the result and anxious about the consequences, which are dominated by the reaction of, and volatility in, the markets. However, let us be clear what the markets mean: we are talking about people’s jobs, wages, mortgages and pensions, so our immediate priority must be to encourage calm heads and protect individuals and businesses that may be affected by the volatility.
This is not the time to think about short-term political interests because what we face as a nation is much bigger than that. There is no doubt that the United Kingdom is at the start of an economic crisis overlaid by a constitutional crisis. That is why Scotland must play a full part in the process. Indeed, the First Minister has a duty to engage in all talks and negotiations because, rightly, all options should remain open.
That is why there must be a formal structure that allows all the talents and peoples of the nations and regions—including Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and London—to be an equal part of the negotiation process so that we can get the best deal possible for all parts of the United Kingdom. That structure—a constitutional convention of the nations and regions—should also have a remit to discuss and decide where the significant powers that are to be repatriated to the UK should reside. Among those powers are significant powers on fishing and farming that are crucial to the Scottish economy.
It is premature to talk about the timing of another independence referendum, especially as we do not yet know what the terms of the UK leaving the EU will be or, indeed, what the terms of Scotland leaving the UK to join the EU would be, if that were to be the case. The market volatility that we have seen in the past few days shows that asking people to make a decision without fully considering the consequences has implications that are dangerous for jobs, wages, mortgages and pensions.
I welcome the tone that the First Minister has adopted since Thursday. She is right to say that we are in uncharted territory. I hope that that is a tone that continues in the weeks and months ahead.
The First Minister is right to ask questions about the impact on the single market, free movement, our currency and our international relationships. We need clarity on what the new arrangements will mean for the £11.6 billion of trade that Scotland does with the EU. However, we will also need clarity on what any new arrangements would mean for the £48.5 billion of trade that Scotland does with the rest of the UK.
The First Minister is right that we need to see what the new arrangements will mean for the tens of thousands of EU nationals living, studying and working in Scotland, and for the 135,000 Scots working in Europe. However, we will also need clarity on what any new arrangements would mean for the more than 500,000 Scots living, studying or working in other parts of the UK.
There are many unanswered questions. What will be the details of any deal for Scotland? What terms will the UK settle with the EU? What will be the status of the new relationship? How much access to EU markets will we retain or lose? Will the people of Scotland have the opportunity to have their say on any renegotiated terms of continued membership? Crucially, what guarantees would we have before any proposed vote on independence?
The First Minister makes the point the UK is not the same now as it was in 2014, but I put it to Parliament that the EU might not be the same in two years as it is now. Let us not have a romantic view of the politics on mainland Europe. I bitterly oppose the right-wing politics of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, but be in no doubt that they are made to look like moderates compared with Marine Le Pen of the French National Front, who could be president next year; the far right parties that are on the rise in Germany; Pegida, which plans violent protests across Europe and is now attempting to build a base across the UK; or the Slovakian Prime Minister, who said,
“Multiculturalism is fiction. Islam has no place in Slovakia”,
and who might take over the rotating presidency in a few weeks’ time. I would also point to the many other mainstream and populist parties who have among their members climate change deniers, anti-Semites and Islamophobes.
Since Thursday, there has been an increase in hate crimes. In Glasgow, neo-Nazi stickers have gone up proclaiming “white zones”. We should send a strong message to all minorities in Scotland that this is their home and that we stand with them in peace and unity, and we should say to the spreaders of hate: “It is not our minorities that are not welcome in Scotland and the United Kingdom but you and your hateful views.”
We face much uncertainty over the coming months. We do not know what the negotiations will throw up, so when the First Minister says that everything is on the table, I really hope that she means it. We need to wait and see what the outcomes of the negotiations will be so that we can make clear and reasoned decisions. We need to have cool heads to ensure that we make decisions not with anger but with reason.