Meeting of the Parliament 23 February 2016
It appears that, both north and south of the border, the measure is far more complex than it first appeared when it was announced in the autumn statement. I had the voice of former minister Jim Mather ringing in my ears as I reviewed the bill. Mr Mather once said to me, “Gavin, there is no such thing as unintended consequences; there is only lazy thinking.” That had an impact on me then, and it has had an impact on me since.
Having thought carefully about the bill, I am of the view that the risk of inaction is greater than the risk of unintended consequences flowing from legislative action. On that basis, I was prepared to support the bill at the committee stage and we will vote in favour of the principles of the bill come decision time today.
That said, there are clearly significant issues to resolve—I think that the Government would accept that. However, if the UK Government were to delay the legislation south of the border—I have no inside information on that—we should give serious consideration to delaying it here as well. Mr Swinney would face no criticism from this side of the chamber were that to happen. Nevertheless, I assume that the bill will be passed south of the border within the current timescale, and my working assumption is that the same will happen here.
There are risks, and Kenneth Gibson captured one of them quite neatly. In trying to help first-time buyers, we must be sure that we do not end up making them worse off if we see a reduction in development. One of the arguments that was put to the committee was that a number of developments that go ahead rely on what are called off-plan sales—pre-sales that are made in advance of the development being built—and it is much more likely that anyone involved in a pre-sale will be a buy-to-let operator or a second home owner as opposed to somebody on their first mortgage. Some developments rely on pre-sales to secure funding, and if some of those developments do not go ahead, there could be a greater danger of lack of supply than we currently face. As much analysis of that as can be done ought to be done.