Meeting of the Parliament 14 January 2016
Thank you, Presiding Officer—although I confess that I do not know how to compress into a four-minute speech the importance of the creation on a statutory basis—as Kenneth Gibson pointed out—of the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission to review Scotland’s proposed tax and borrowing powers and, indeed, the budget. However, I will try to do that.
This subject is a staging post in the journey that we are on. That journey already has the signposts of the additional tax powers that we have now and those that we know will come.
The Scottish Fiscal Commission will sit easily alongside what will, I believe, eventually be a Scottish treasury—in an independent Scotland—that interacts with the Government and provides assessment but does not manage the forecasting process. The oversight of budgets and financial forecasting is a reflection on how our country’s fiscal process, rules and framework will work in its relationships—initially with the United Kingdom. However, as more and more financial powers are devolved the function will become even more critical, as we take overall control of the Scottish financial and fiscal landscape.
What is just as critical in the interim and final stages will be the commission’s secured independence from Government. I was interested to hear Mr Brown talk about two countries, one of which was Sweden. If he had read the independent consultant’s report, he would have found that Sweden does not have an independent fiscal institution.
It is inconceivable to think anything other than that the demand for purity in oversight of financial rules, processes and forecasting, and a robust relationship between that oversight and our overall economic strategy, are paramount—as are the methodology and analytical professionalism. I cannot help but draw a comparison between that and what Ms Baillie said about the UK OBR. She will know that, in the 34 OECD countries, the OBR is one of eight such offices that are under the control of the Government.
Jackie Baillie also mentioned the oil forecast, which the OBR was responsible for producing for the UK budget.