Meeting of the Parliament 08 September 2015
Not at the moment. Aside from the consequences of the fall in price, oil is in decline and the cost of extraction is increasing. However much we might not want to talk about this, we need to start thinking now about a post-oil economy.
What do we do about decommissioning? Let us have a clear strategy from the SNP Government to bring investment to carry that out here. How do we make sure that the skills, the talents and the jobs in the oil industry transfer into the new industries of the future? There is little in the strategy about that.
Members may recall that, back in March, the SNP Government published two economic analysis papers within a week of each other. They set out the benefits of improved economic performance and were the SNP’s demonstration of how it would improve onshore revenue receipts and close the gap in the nation’s finances.
Aside from wrongly including the benefits of the Barnett formula in their calculations about full fiscal autonomy, the papers made a number of sweeping assumptions. We would see a growth in productivity—there was no underlying policy analysis for achieving that. We would see a narrowing of the gap between Scotland and our international peers on business investment—there was no underlying policy analysis for achieving that. We would see a 50 per cent growth in exports, which would be a growth rate higher than China’s in its heyday—again, there was no underlying policy analysis for achieving that.
Let me go on with the sweeping assumptions for just a minute. All that would apparently generate £3 billion more in tax revenues. That is the SNP’s best-case scenario. Far be it from me to point out to the cabinet secretary that, with a gap of at least £7 billion, he was a little way short—some £4 billion short. That would mean a cut in services such as schools and hospitals and reducing the numbers of teachers and nurses, or it would mean higher taxes. We have yet to hear which it will be, and the SNP is still committed to pursuing a policy of full fiscal autonomy that would cost Scotland’s economy dear.
Our focus for the economy must be forward looking. We know that the Scotland of tomorrow will not be like the Scotland of today. Our greatest future asset is our people, because it is human capital that can drive economic success. That means that we need to invest in people’s potential. We need to give them the very best start in life, the best opportunities in school and access to further and higher education and to lifelong learning. Education is an economic issue.
My leader, Kezia Dugdale, visited Selex ES yesterday to talk about the engineering jobs of the future. EngineeringUK estimates that Scotland will need nearly 150,000 new engineers by 2022. That is great, and it could result in a £1.7 billion bonus to our economy. Why is it, then, that a pathway to engineering course that is being offered at Dumbarton academy, in my constituency, is being cancelled by West College Scotland? I hope that the cabinet secretary will agree that that is short-sighted and is perhaps driven by financial considerations more than by the local economy’s needs.