Chamber
Meeting of the Parliament 26 March 2014
26 Mar 2014 · S4 · Meeting of the Parliament
Item of business
Scotland’s Finances
Not just now.
The Scottish Government was out by £1.3 billion, yet the First Minister says that the figures are robust. What makes that mistake even worse is that the Scottish Government made that prediction in March 2013. There was only a month to go before the year end and the oil revenues actually coming in, but the Scottish Government still managed to misjudge it by well over £1 billion.
Perhaps that was an isolated year. Let us look at 2013-14. The OBR has said that its projection for 2013-14 is £4.7 billion. The industry, Oil & Gas UK, has said that it will be around £5 billion, so there is a spread from £4.7 billion to £5 billion. The Scottish Government’s official position is still that we will collect £7.1 billion in oil revenues, if we are unlucky, but it is potentially £8.3 billion.
In the same item of business
The Presiding Officer (Tricia Marwick)
NPA
The next item of business is a debate on motion S4M-09462, in the name of Gavin Brown, on Scotland’s finances. Members who wish to take part in the debate sh...
Gavin Brown (Lothian) (Con)
Con
Thank you, Presiding Officer. In recent months, we have had a number of debates on independence and I am quite sure that we will have many more in the comin...
Stewart Stevenson (Banffshire and Buchan Coast) (SNP)
SNP
I wonder whether the member can give us figures for the UK for the years that he is talking about.
Gavin Brown
Con
If the member reads the Office for Budget Responsibility’s analysis that was published last week, I think that he will find that it gives very clear projecti...
John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston) (SNP)
SNP
I accept that the member has every right to look into the detail and all the rest of it, but does he accept the bigger picture that a country of five million...
Gavin Brown
Con
There is a big difference between saying that a country is financially viable and claiming that it would automatically be richer than the country of which it...
Jim Eadie (Edinburgh Southern) (SNP)
SNP
Will the member take an intervention?
Gavin Brown
Con
Not just now. I ask the member to let me make some progress. We hear that we have figures for only a single year, but it is clear that independence involves...
Kevin Stewart (Aberdeen Central) (SNP)
SNP
Will the member give way?
Gavin Brown
Con
The Scottish Government says that it will ignore what the UK Government wants to do because it will do things differently but, even if it followed the UK pat...
Kevin Stewart
SNP
Will the member give way on that point?
Gavin Brown
Con
I give way to Mr Stewart. He is nothing if not persistent.
Kevin Stewart
SNP
I thank the member for giving way. Mr Brown has failed to talk about economic growth. We are being constrained by current UK policies and we could grow the e...
Gavin Brown
Con
I do not know where Mr Stewart was when the autumn statement came out or when the budget came out. I do not know where he has been over the past nine months,...
The Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth (John Swinney)
SNP
Will the member take an intervention?
Gavin Brown
Con
Perhaps the cabinet secretary has the answer to that question.
John Swinney
SNP
I will answer that point in my speech later on, if Mr Brown will forgive me. I ask him whether the OBR’s estimates of economic growth since 2010 have been re...
Gavin Brown
Con
Mr Swinney knows the answer to that question. The projections that were made in 2010 were made long before the euro crisis—a crisis that engulfed an entire c...
Mike MacKenzie (Highlands and Islands) (SNP)
SNP
Will the member take an intervention?
Gavin Brown
Con
Not yet. The Scottish Government is out of kilter with the analysts. The primary reason for that—it is not the only reason—is that the Scottish Government ...
The Presiding Officer
NPA
Order.
Gavin Brown
Con
They fell right into that one. They did not use to do that when the projections said what they wanted them to say. Last week, the First Minister said: “th...
Stewart Stevenson
SNP
Hear, hear.
Gavin Brown
Con
“Hear, hear” we hear. Let us check how robust the figures actually are, because for 2012-13 we have outturn figures as opposed to projected figures. The OBR ...
Kevin Stewart
SNP
Will the member give way?
Gavin Brown
Con
Not just now. The Scottish Government was out by £1.3 billion, yet the First Minister says that the figures are robust. What makes that mistake even worse i...
Mike MacKenzie
SNP
Will the member take an intervention?
Gavin Brown
Con
I will give way to Mr MacKenzie.
The Presiding Officer
NPA
The member is in his last minute.
Gavin Brown
Con
I will give way to him in my closing speech if he cares to trouble me. The Scottish Government is out by at least £2 billion for the financial year that we ...