Chamber
Meeting of the Parliament 07 December 2011
07 Dec 2011 · S4 · Meeting of the Parliament
Item of business
Autumn Budget Statement and the Scottish Economy
I find it surprising that the member wishes to criticise the OBR, which has received praise for its work from across the political and economic spectrum and across the United Kingdom. I suspect that it took 18 months because there is an enormous amount of detail to be gone through and the office started from zero, in effect, when the coalition Government came into office.
The consequence of the Government’s actions is that the yield on UK Government bonds is about as low as it can get. We have retained our triple-A status, even as dozens of others falter across the world, with a downgrade watch being placed on both France and Germany just this week. Only a handful of countries around the world can borrow more cheaply than we can over the next 10 years. That is serious, because a rise in yield of even just 1 per cent would add £7.5 billion to the debt interest payments by 2016. The UK Government has therefore to be applauded and given great credit for the measures that it has taken.
The consequence of the Government’s actions is that the yield on UK Government bonds is about as low as it can get. We have retained our triple-A status, even as dozens of others falter across the world, with a downgrade watch being placed on both France and Germany just this week. Only a handful of countries around the world can borrow more cheaply than we can over the next 10 years. That is serious, because a rise in yield of even just 1 per cent would add £7.5 billion to the debt interest payments by 2016. The UK Government has therefore to be applauded and given great credit for the measures that it has taken.
In the same item of business
The Deputy Presiding Officer (John Scott)
Con
The next item of business is a debate on motion S4M-01501, in the name of John Swinney, on the United Kingdom Government’s autumn budget statement and the Sc...
The Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth (John Swinney)
SNP
I am grateful for the opportunity to open the debate on the autumn budget statement and the wider Scottish economy. It is now more than three years since the...
Mary Scanlon (Highlands and Islands) (Con)
Con
In comparing the United Kingdom with France and Germany, does the cabinet secretary accept that the coalition Government inherited the highest level of debt ...
John Swinney
SNP
I know that Mary Scanlon assiduously follows my speeches in the Parliament. She will not have noticed me in any way shirking from apportioning responsibility...
Richard Baker (North East Scotland) (Lab)
Lab
The cabinet secretary has rightly referred to the revision downwards of growth forecasts. What impact will that have on the Scottish Government’s spending re...
John Swinney
SNP
Mr Baker asks a fair question. I point him to the evidence that I shared with the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee some weeks ago. In the year of greate...
Gavin Brown (Lothian) (Con)
Con
I apologise for missing the start of the cabinet secretary’s speech.In the switch from revenue to capital quite a large sum—about £150 million—will go into t...
John Swinney
SNP
No. The budget proposals rely on a shift from the revenue columns to the capital columns—that is a straightforward transaction in the budget document.
Gavin Brown
Con
The Forth crossing is not in the revenue budget.
John Swinney
SNP
I point out to Mr Brown that the UK Government has of course reduced our capital budget by 36 per cent, which has been moderated to 32 per cent. In the overa...
Willie Rennie (Mid Scotland and Fife) (LD)
LD
The infrastructure plan is a 20-year plan. The increased funding is provided within the first three years. What has been accelerated as a result of the incre...
John Swinney
SNP
Mr Rennie expects me to take a look at those questions, and we will come back to the Parliament, as we will on the other consequentials, to set out how our p...
Neil Findlay (Lothian) (Lab)
Lab
Will the minister give way?
John Swinney
SNP
I would give way to Mr Findlay if—
The Deputy Presiding Officer
Con
Cabinet secretary, you are in your last minute.
John Swinney
SNP
I apologise to Mr Findlay. I will happily deal with his points during the debate.The autumn statement provided some additional capital consequentials for the...
Richard Baker (North East Scotland) (Lab)
Lab
This is a welcome opportunity to debate the autumn statement and its implications for Scotland. It comes at a critical point for our economy and for the worl...
Jackson Carlaw (West Scotland) (Con)
Con
Is it not a consequence of the coalition Government’s strategy that we have the lowest interest rates in the world? Would not a consequence of the Labour Par...
Richard Baker
Lab
I presume that Mr Carlaw would not have acted to bail out the banks. The UK Government has left us the lowest rates of growth in the world, and it has choked...
Gavin Brown
Con
Will the member acknowledge what the Institute for Fiscal Studies has stated? It said that if Labour’s plans had been implemented, they would“now of course h...
Richard Baker
Lab
No, because the figures that I have show that the UK Government plans £37 billion more borrowing in future years than the amount in Labour’s plans that were ...
Gavin Brown
Con
Will the member give way?
Richard Baker
Lab
I have already given way to Mr Brown. I will try to take an intervention from him later.We understand that there will be limited consequentials in the new pl...
John Swinney
SNP
Will Mr Baker take this opportunity to confirm his understanding of the spending review, which involves a rising trend of capital expenditure in Scotland des...
Richard Baker
Lab
My understanding, from what the cabinet secretary said earlier, is that there will be consequentials later in the spending review cycle involving increased s...
Gavin Brown (Lothian) (Con)
Con
It is worth reflecting on some of the analysis and feedback from economists since last week’s autumn statement. The Economist put it simply, stating that“the...
Stuart McMillan (West Scotland) (SNP)
SNP
Does Gavin Brown agree that it is strange that it takes the OBR 18 months to realise that the strategic deficit is worse than planned? What has it been doing...
Gavin Brown
Con
I find it surprising that the member wishes to criticise the OBR, which has received praise for its work from across the political and economic spectrum and ...
Richard Baker
Lab
What is the cost to our economy from the fact that our growth rates are higher than only those of Greece and Portugal, out of the whole euro zone?
Gavin Brown
Con
The growth rates are very disappointing, but if one looks at the OBR report in full—not just the press release that accompanied it—one sees that, although th...