Meeting of the Parliament 12 February 2026 [Draft]
I do not know who has rattled Mr Swinney’s cage, but it is certainly rattled.
The only person the budget appears to add up for is Shona Robison, because she initially thought that it provided her with nearly enough coverage to get out the door in May, but analysts have warned that that will not hold. Whoever replaces her will, almost inevitably, be forced back to the Parliament with an emergency statement to fix the mistakes that she has made. [Interruption.]
Let us look at some of the detail in Shona Robison’s plans. The Government insists that it is properly funding our NHS, but do not take my word for it. David Phillips from the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that funding allocations for health in 2026-27 look—and I quote, Mr Swinney—“increasingly detached from reality.” Excluding social care pay, health and social care funding is up by only 1.6 per cent in cash terms, but down by 0.6 per cent in real terms. Agenda for change staff are due a pay increase of 3.75 per cent and resident doctors have been awarded 9.4 per cent. Something serious will have to give at the front line of our NHS.